Customers shop at a Walmart store on May 13, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois.
Scott Olson | fake images
With all eyes on the health of the American consumer, WalmartThursday morning's fiscal first-quarter earnings report may offer Wall Street some of its best clues yet.
The big-box retailer is expected to report another quarter of rising sales and profits, but its comments on consumer spending — whether and where it sees any pressure — could offer investors insight into the strength of the U.S. economy.
Here's what analysts expect Walmart to report for the quarter, based on LSEG consensus estimates:
- Earnings per share: 66 cents per share
- Revenue: $175 billion
In the three months since Walmart last reported earnings, there is new conflict in the Middle East, gas prices have skyrocketed and consumer confidence has plummeted, falling to a new all-time low in May. The avalanche of bad news comes on top of years of persistent inflation, higher interest rates and a global trade war that has driven prices up even higher.
Walmart has long been among the best positioned to weather almost any economic storm, but given the broad consumer segments it serves, it is uniquely positioned to see if and where cracks are forming in the economy.
Long a value play among low-income shoppers, Walmart has been winning over more high-income consumers in recent years, helping fuel its growth and insulating it from economic shocks that have hit lower-income people more acutely.
When they report results Thursday morning, investors will want to know: Are higher-income buyers still as resilient as before, or are rising gas prices having an impact? How much additional pressure does the low-income buyer face?
If consumers begin to pull back, leading to a greater concentration of lower-margin foods over higher-margin discretionary goods, Walmart's additional revenue streams are expected to help offset those pressures. Its advertising and marketplace businesses are high-margin revenue streams that have helped Walmart keep prices low and profits low.
So far this earnings season, major companies have largely said consumer spending has held up in the face of higher gas prices. But that resilience also came amid higher tax returns, which Aim said Wednesday may have fueled some of the growth seen during the first quarter.
“We believe this year's larger tax refunds were a source of increased consumer spending in the first quarter, and that benefit will fade over the rest of the year,” Chief Financial Officer Jim Lee said on a call with analysts. “While consumers have proven resilient so far, confidence has been declining recently. And we are closely monitoring their spending behavior.”
Investors will want to know if Walmart has seen a similar trend and what that could mean for the fiscal year and the broader economy.
