© Reuters Bitcoin ETF base case scenario laid out by analyst as big date approaches
U.Today – Expectations are rising ahead of the Jan. 10 deadline for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to decide whether to grant its first blessing to a .
According to a report, the SEC “may” notify issuers as early as Tuesday or Wednesday that they have been authorized to launch spot bitcoin ETFs the following week.
Along these lines, a crypto analyst presents what he calls an “ETF base scenario”, which he anticipates will happen around January 8-10.
In a positive scenario where a Bitcoin spot ETF gains approval, Kruger predicts that the immediate Bitcoin price reaction will be an upward move, citing the reason that it is currently 90% discounted.
As a follow-up to this, Kruger predicts that Bitcoin price could fall below ETH pre-approval levels (if approved) at launch almost two weeks later. He adds that this remains speculation given that there is no official release date; It could be days after approval or much later, considering how many ETFs are in the running. However, Kruger believes that sooner rather than later makes more sense.
In what could follow after the launch of a Bitcoin spot ETF, Kroger (NYSE 🙂 predicts strong inflows or volume to restore the uptrend. On the other hand, if inflows are weak, prices may fall as favorites make some offers.
In a bearish scenario where the SEC rejects the Bitcoin spot ETF, Kruger predicts that prices could collapse quickly. Either way, he urges traders to be vigilant in January.
Bitcoin will close 2023 as one of the best performing assets
It is set to close the year as one of the best-performing assets, up more than 160% and outperforming all major traditional assets even on a risk-adjusted basis, thanks to the ETF hype.
Optimism about a BTC spot ETF began to grow after BlackRock (NYSE 🙂 filed and BTC has since risen from $28,000 to almost $45,000.
According to Kaiko, despite a rather dull half-year, Bitcoin has one of the strongest Sharpe ratios of all major assets this year, second only to semiconductor giant Nvidia (NASDAQ:), whose shares doubled with You grow from January to May in AI. hype.
At the time of writing, BTC was up 1.2% in the last 24 hours to $42,620.
This article was originally published on U.Today.