Johannesburg, South Africa – In the sleepy mining town of Swartruggens, a small court is preparing to decide whether five Mexicans accused of a major illegal drug operation will be released on bail or remain in custody.
Their arrests followed a raid on a remote farm in the North West province, where police said they discovered a large methamphetamine laboratory worth about one billion rand ($60 million).
The case is one of several that point to a pattern taking shape in South Africa's rural hinterland.
The Swartruggens laboratory was not an isolated discovery.
It was one of four major methamphetamine sites linked to Mexican criminals discovered in South Africa in just two years, a pattern that has worried investigators and organized crime experts.
In 2024, police dismantled a large methamphetamine facility worth between $105 million and $110 million on a farm near Groblersdal in Limpopo. Later that year, another lab worth between $5 million and $6 million was discovered near Tshwane, followed by arrests last year in Mpumalanga.
Then came Swartruggens.
When police entered the North West farm in May, they found 1,000 pounds of methamphetamine, containers of chemicals and firearms. Among those arrested were Mexican nationals Fabián Astorga, Jesús Alonso Medina Astorga, Luis Alberto Ramírez Ríos, José Andrés Medina and Jacquelin López Madrid, along with South African co-accused.
All the sites followed the same pattern: remote farmland, long distances from cities, and enough isolation for criminal activity to go unnoticed.
For researchers, the pattern is increasingly difficult to ignore.
Increasingly, Mexicans are found working alongside local collaborators at rural production sites, suggesting a shift from trafficking methamphetamine to Africa to producing it there.
Organized crime investigator Julian Rademeyer told Al Jazeera the model reflects a deliberate strategy.
“It's a pretty unique occurrence where there are members of the Mexican drug cartels who franchise and transport chemists to rural areas and remote farms,” he said.
The approach has been in development for more than a decade, he added.
The logic is simple: produce closer to consumers, reduce transportation costs and reduce exposure to border and maritime surveillance.
how it spread
Networks linked to Mexico in Africa did not begin in South Africa.
Investigators trace initial activity to Nigeria, where local groups were producing methamphetamine with Mexican involvement around 2016.
From there, the networks spread across East Africa, then south through Mozambique and Botswana, before most recently reaching South Africa.
For years, users on the streets talked about “Mexican meth,” which was often assumed to be imported. That supply chain has now shifted inward.
“Now, basically, the cartel's chemicals are being sent here,” Rademeyer told Al Jazeera.
Analysts say multiple supply routes now feed the South African market, but the most significant change is the increase in local production.
Who looks the other way?
Methamphetamine dominates parts of South Africa's illicit drug market because cheaper drugs such as cocaine and heroin remain out of reach for many users, creating constant demand for a cheaper and highly addictive stimulant.
Crime expert Willem Els says the lawsuit is only part of the story.
“The main reason why local manufacturing is lucrative for cartels is the local conditions that exist, where there is protection from corrupt police and politicians,” he told Al Jazeera.
“It's very lucrative. Cartels can make a lot of money because South African conditions result in undetected and protected operations.”
An independent law enforcement commission of inquiry has heard testimony alleging deep corruption within police structures, including missing drug shipments and suspected insider involvement in major cases.
One case under scrutiny involves 541 kilos of cocaine seized in 2021 and then stolen from a police facility, in what investigators believe was an inside job.
Former Interpol ambassador Andy Mashiale told Al Jazeera that the problem is visible on the ground.
“It is impossible for the police not to know about those laboratories,” he said. “So corruption plays a role.”
He said officers deployed in rural areas were often aware of suspicious activity but failed to act.
“What inspires drug manufacturers or drug cartels is the willingness of the police to allow drug trafficking to occur,” he said.
South Africa's elite Hawks unit says recent raids show progress in dismantling networks, while international partners, including the US Drug Enforcement Agency, have provided intelligence linking some suspects to the Sinaloa Cartel.
But researchers warn that the system behind the labs is resilient.
A frontier that continues to advance
U.S. Africa Command officials have warned that Mexican cartels are now not only moving drugs through Africa, but also producing them on the continent.
For South Africa, the challenge is no longer just border control, but institutional capacity, intelligence and corruption within the system intended to contain it.
Without deeper reform, analysts warn, the pattern is likely to continue: new farms, new laboratories, new chemicals arriving quietly in rural provinces.
For the five Swartruggens men the immediate question is whether they will be released.
For South Africa, the question is broader and more difficult: how to contain a trade that no longer reaches its borders, but is taking root in the country.
Rademeyer says the structure is built to absorb disturbances.
“It's a game of whack-a-mole,” he told Al Jazeera. “A meth lab is seized here, a meth lab is seized there. They'll show up elsewhere.”
