News flash: there probably won't be an iPhone 18 this year. Well, more or less.
If the latest rumors are true, Apple willpower will launch new iPhones in September, as happens every year. But for the first time since 2016, when the original iPhone SE and iPhone 7 debuted at separate in-person events, it appears the tech giant will host two separate launch events for its next line of smartphones.
The first, in September, will likely focus on the iPhone 18 Pro, iPhone 18 Pro Max and the foldable iPhone Ultra, while the second could take place sometime in spring 2027, or between March and April, for our Australian readers, and looks like it will focus on the regular iPhone 18 and iPhone 18e.
That strategy is made a little confusing by the possible addition of the iPhone Air 2, which, if it ever launches, is rumored to drop alongside the iPhone 18 and 18e at next year's spring event. Personally, I hope the iPhone Air 2 sees the light of day, although rumors about its existence are inconclusive, and if it is indeed in Apple's plans, I think it makes more sense to launch it in September, not in spring.
But regardless of what happens with the iPhone Air 2, the fact is that we will likely see September reserved for Apple's Pro and foldable models in the future, with everything else arriving the following year.
So, yes, big changes are coming.
Whatever happened to “if it ain't broke, don't fix it”?
For because Apple could be about to shred its proven launch playbook, which, it's worth noting, has generated market-leading phone sales for the better part of a decade; We don't have any official answer. But of course we can speculate about the reasons for the change.
First of all, almost all other smartphone manufacturers are already staggering their smartphone launches. Samsung, for example, has long held separate launch events for its Galaxy S and Z series phones, just as Google regularly releases its A-series Pixel phones around six months after its flagship models.
Having two separate iPhone launch events means that Apple can keep the momentum going for its iPhones throughout the year, rather than enjoying a big hype every September. It can also more effectively divert attention from Android-focused events like MWC in March and the annual launches of Samsung and Xiaomi, which usually occur in the same spring period (I highlight those two brands because they are Apple's two biggest competitors).
What's more, a bi-annual iPhone release strategy means Apple can target two different types of consumers more effectively, which it clearly hopes to achieve if it plans to group its premium models at one event and its more affordable models at another.
Second, the base iPhone 17 is selling very, very well. According to Counterpoint, Apple's latest base model is the best-selling phone of 2026 so far, and there are rumors that Apple could degrade iPhone 18 to reduce costs, it makes sense to extend the life of the iPhone 17 as much as possible.
That cost-cutting strategy is also key to understanding why Apple could be about to mix up its release schedule.
Prolific iPhone leaker Fixed Focus Digital suggests that Apple will bring “certain manufacturing improvements” to the iPhone 18 to better align it with the iPhone 18e from a supply chain level. In other words, the iPhone 18 could be a worse phone than the iPhone 17, or at least a very similar one, which isn't something you'd expect from a successor, but only because Apple could deliberately reposition its base model as a stablemate to the e-line rather than the Pro line.
Because? Because the iPhone 17's $799 / £799 / AU$1,399 price point is clearly the sweet spot for consumers. If manufacturing costs are rising, it means the iPhone 18 could cost more if Apple decides to make a phone that is objectively better than the iPhone 17. But if the price of the iPhone 18 increases, Apple risks distancing itself from its mid-range customers and encroaching on the premium appeal of its Pro line. Differentiation is key, and hosting two separate iPhone launch events would help Apple maintain it.
It's time for Ternus
It also makes sense that all of this could begin under new CEO John Ternus, who will succeed Tim Cook as head of Apple starting in September.
Apple has, in all likelihood, been planning a shake-up of its iPhone strategy for some time now, but it's fitting that Ternus is the one to introduce a new iPhone category in the foldable iPhone Ultra and a new type of base model in the iPhone 18.
Will this new strategy bear fruit? It's true that, as the world's largest smartphone maker, Apple has a lot to lose by messing with its Golden Goose product. But the MacBook Neo showed that Ternus and company. They value budget-focused buyers as much as Apple's traditional target market, so it makes sense to me that the iPhone would get the same segmented treatment.
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