fell to $4,387 per troy ounce on Thursday, marking its third consecutive session of losses. The market remains cautious amid persistent uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran negotiations, which continue to fuel concerns about inflation and the prospect of prolonged high interest rates.
Key disagreements between the two sides remain unresolved. Tehran continues to insist on maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz and preserving its nuclear program.
US President Donald Trump previously stated that Washington would not accept a “bad deal” and was unwilling to ease sanctions against Iran, despite Tehran's demands for financial concessions and an end to attacks.
Even if progress is made toward a deal, markets still expect high energy prices to persist. This is likely to maintain inflationary pressure and force major central banks to maintain tight monetary policy for longer, rather than moving towards rate cuts.
Since the start of the conflict, gold has already lost more than 15% of its value amid a stronger US dollar, rising bond yields and expectations of higher interest rates across the global economy.
Technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the market is trading within a consolidation range around $4,470. A downward move towards $4,359 is likely. A corrective bounce to $4,470 may follow (a retest from below), before a further decline towards $4,238, with room for an extension to $4,170. The MACD indicator confirms the current bearish momentum, with the signal line below the center line and pointing firmly downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market has broken below the USD 4,470 level and continues to decline towards USD 4,390. A corrective bounce remains possible to retest $4,470 from below, followed by another drop towards $4,250. A further bounce towards $4,390 is possible. The stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with the signal line below 20 and pointing firmly downwards.
Conclusion
Gold remains under significant pressure amid geopolitical uncertainty, elevated inflation expectations and tight monetary policy. Technical indicators suggest that bearish momentum remains dominant, although short-term corrective bounces are possible.
By RoboForex Analysis Department
Disclaimer: Any forecast contained herein is based on the author's personal opinion. This analysis cannot be considered trading advice. RoboForex assumes no responsibility for trading results based on the trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
