It continued its decline on Friday, falling to $4,619 an ounce. The week will close with losses of around 1%, as rising US inflation puts pressure on the market. The rise in prices reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve can keep rates high for longer or even resume hikes.
Data released this week showed that US manufacturing inflation rose at its fastest pace since 2022 in April, while consumer prices recorded the most significant increase since 2023.
The main driver of inflationary pressure remains the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, which continue to influence global energy markets.
Against this backdrop, the market has largely ruled out a Fed rate cut for 2026. Some investors are even discounting the possibility of a further rate hike until December.
Also drawing investors' attention was the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, during which a key topic was ensuring open navigation through the Strait of Hormuz to support global energy trade.
Elsewhere, the market is keeping an eye on India, where authorities have further tightened regulations on gold imports as part of measures to support the rupee.
Technical analysis
On the H4 chart, gold has broken below $4,639 and is moving towards $4,550. A corrective bounce to $4,630 is possible (testing from below), followed by a further decline towards $4,500. The MACD indicator confirms the current bearish momentum, with its signal line below the center line and pointing firmly downwards.
On the H1 chart, gold has broken below the $4,639 level and continues declining towards $4,555. A bounce towards $4,639 is possible before a further decline towards $4,550. The stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line below 20 and pointing firmly downwards, indicating continued bearish pressure.
Conclusion
Gold remains under pressure as US inflation data strengthens the case for sustained or higher interest rates. Short-term technical indicators suggest further bearish potential, although temporary corrections may occur. Geopolitical events and political decisions in major economies will continue to dictate market sentiment.
By RoboForex Analysis Department
Disclaimer: Any forecast contained herein is based on the author's personal opinion. This analysis cannot be considered trading advice. RoboForex assumes no responsibility for trading results based on the trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
