it held at 1.3528 on Thursday after falling overnight. The pound remains under pressure, near its lowest levels since late April, amid media reports of a possible leadership contest within the ruling party. According to The Times, British Health Minister Wes Streeting is preparing to launch a campaign against Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Despite pressure from parts of the government and more than 80 Labor Party MPs, Starmer has reiterated that he has no intention of resigning following the party's weak performance in the local elections. The composition of the cabinet remains largely stable, despite some resignations of junior ministers.
External factors continue to weigh on the pound. Talks between the United States and Iran remain inconclusive, while restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz keep oil prices elevated. In this context, the market continues to discount almost three rate increases from the Bank of England until the end of the year.
Investors are also awaiting the release of new UK macroeconomic data, including first quarter GDP figures.
Technical analysis
On the H4 chart, GBP/USD is trading within a wide consolidation range above 1.3515, which currently extends to 1.3530. A downward move towards 1.3480 is possible. After this, the pair may consolidate before attempting a rally towards 1.3650 or a further decline towards 1.3340. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards.
On the H1 chart, GBP/USD is trading within a compact consolidation range around 1.3515, which currently extends to 1.3483. A bounce towards 1.3530 is possible (testing from below), followed by a possible move lower towards 1.3480. The stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly towards 20.
Conclusion
GBP/USD remains under double pressure from domestic political uncertainty and global economic risks. The pound is likely to weaken further if leadership concerns and geopolitical tensions persist, while UK GDP data may act as a short-term catalyst for volatility.
By RoboForex Analysis Department
Disclaimer:
Any forecast contained herein is based on the author's personal opinion. This analysis cannot be considered trading advice. RoboForex assumes no responsibility for trading results based on the trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
