Following yesterday's analysis, where we discussed the possibility of the correction slowing down and the market seeking equilibrium around 214.5, today's move seems quite consistent with that line of thinking. The pair bounced from the 213.0-213.5 area and is gradually recovering.
However, the recovery still looks cautious: candles are small, momentum is limited, and the market seems more observant than active. This type of behavior fits well with the typical weekend dynamic, when many participants:
- close positions
- lock in profits
- coverage before the weekend
- avoid unnecessary exposure
As a result, the market often gets “jittery” and on Mondays it often opens with gaps, and in recent months, these gaps have been in mixed directions, with no clear pattern.
Because of this, I currently only consider short-term intraday long positions, without taking trades over the weekend.
The market may offer a local bullish move, but holding positions over the weekend becomes less a matter of analysis and more of gambling probabilities that are especially blurry during those periods.
GBP/JPY still looks like a market looking for direction: there is a recovery, but it has not yet turned into a certain reversal.
A firm move above 215.5 could reinforce the bullish scenario, while a drop below 214.0 could bring the idea of a deeper correction back into play.
For now, the pair remains in a zone of uncertainty, where it makes more sense to work in short segments rather than trying to “outwit” a market that has not yet made a decision.
