It fell on Friday to its lowest level since March 31, 2026 and remains near 1.1457. This is supported by rising expectations of further policy tightening following more aggressive than expected signals from the regulator.
This week, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged. However, updated forecasts showed that half of FOMC members still see at least one rate hike as possible in the future. At the same time, the regulator raised its inflation projections, taking into account the impact of the recent conflict in the Middle East.
New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh did not provide the market with clear guidance on the upcoming interest rate decision. However, he confirmed that bringing inflation to the target level remains the US central bank's priority.
Meanwhile, the interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran has officially entered into force. This helped reduce geopolitical tensions and lowered oil prices.
However, the market continues to focus more on the outlook for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy than on the improving foreign policy environment. This provides strong support to the demand for the US dollar.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
On the EUR/USD H4 chart, the market formed a consolidation range around 1.1467 today. At the moment, the range has widened down to 1.1417 and up to 1.1450. If the price breaks out of this range to the upside, a corrective wave towards 1.1590 is expected. After that, a drop to 1.1385 may follow. If the price breaks directly lower, it will open the possibility of a descending wave towards 1.1313. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator: its signal line is below zero and heading firmly downwards, reflecting the persistent bearish momentum and the possibility of the downtrend continuing.
According to the H1 chart, the market has completed the structure of another growth wave towards 1.1480. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, the relevant scenario suggests a possible range expansion down to 1.1414 and up to 1.1444, followed by a decline to 1.1385. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the stochastic oscillator: its signal line is below 20. An increase towards 50 is expected, followed by a firm decline towards 20.
By RoboForex Analysis Department
Disclaimer: Any forecast contained herein is based on the author's personal opinion. This analysis cannot be considered trading advice. RoboForex assumes no responsibility for trading results based on the trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
