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Let's not get carried away here.
Democrats' chances of winning the Senate are somewhere between almost impossible and non-existent.
And yet he is suddenly the subject of considerable media commentary.
It's like a Rube Goldberg contraption: if this happens and that happens and this other long-range thing somehow fits, the ball ends up in the cup.
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Senate Democrats, led by Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., face an uphill battle to regain control of the chamber, despite significant headwinds from the Trump administration midterm. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
Virtually everyone, including many Republicans I've spoken to privately, agrees that Democrats will take the House in November. The margin may not be huge, given that most incumbents win re-election, but the opposition party controlling the floor, the committees and an avalanche of investigations would completely change the last two years of Donald Trump's presidency.
The latest NBC poll shows that 63 percent of respondents strongly or somewhat disapprove of Trump's job performance, and 67 percent strongly or somewhat disapprove of his handling of the Iran war. Oh.
But now mainstream pundits are so caught up in falling poll numbers and the unpopularity of the war that they believe Democrats can walk on water and quite possibly ride that flood into control of the Senate.
They're even talking about Texas.
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I mean, come on. Remember the endless grandstanding surrounding Beto O'Rourke, who lost for the Senate and for governor? Texas hasn't elected a statewide Democrat since the 1990s. And yet, every two years we get “that's it! Texas is ready to go blue!”
I know, Democratic challenger James Talarico has raised tons of money since CBS refused to air his Stephen Colbert interview.
And in politics you can never say never.
Much will depend on whether Sen. John Cornyn or Attorney General Ken Paxton win the GOP runoff. Many Republicans consider Cornyn too moderate. But Paxton was indicted (later acquitted) on charges including bribery in 2023, settled criminal fraud charges by paying restitution, and divorced his wife, who he said had been having an affair.
Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas (L), faces state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in a bitter GOP primary runoff election. (Getty Images)
So yeah, it's a crazy year.
And yes, if the war ends, a lot will depend on whether the economy recovers: a tired cliché that turns out to be true.
The New York Times examines the issue in an article so loaded with warnings that its corporate ass is completely covered:
“A blue wave isn't guaranteed, of course, and Democrats wouldn't be assured of flipping two reliably red states even if it were. But a feasible path for the party to win the Senate is coming into focus.”
That's called tiptoeing into the water. Nate Cohn's carefully crafted article admits that Democratic candidates would have to win seven of seven competitive races. Seven out of seven!
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I mean, that's about as likely as the world seeing the dark side of the moon.
Uh, let's try another analogy.
Seven out of seven are less likely than winning the lottery.
Gasoline prices are less likely to drop suddenly. That's why Trump contradicted Energy Secretary Chris Wright, who told CNN that gas prices below $3 a gallon “might not happen until next year.”
“Totally wrong,” says the president.
So here's the summary.
Every Democrat in the Senate today represents a state that Joe Biden won in 2020, because the party has done very poorly in red states. (Case in point: When Biden-mad West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin dropped out, he was replaced by Republican Jim Justice.)
And here's another warning from the Times! – no party has even managed to change two states that have tilted politically the other way since 2008.
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The evaluation is basically based on the quality of the Democratic candidates heading into the midterm elections.
In North Carolina, that's former Governor Roy Cooper.
In Ohio, it's former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his 2024 seat during Trump's victory.
In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Peltola is already leading in the polls.
But Maine is weird. The strong contender was supposed to be Governor Janet Mills. But he trails in the primary, 2 to 1, behind first-time progressive challenger and military veteran Graham Platner.
Platner has admitted to having a Nazi tattoo. In 2021, CNN reported on a series of posts in which Platner also called himself a communist, said rural Americans are “racist” and “stupid,” described all police officers as “bastards,” and used the word “retards” multiple times. He says they were stupid jokes. And Elizabeth Warren campaigned with him over the weekend.
Sullivan Harbor Master Graham Platner and Gov. Janet Mills are in a heated Democratic primary race to take on Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, in November. (Getty Images)
What's more, could either candidate unseat independent Republican Susan Collins?
At the same time, Democrats have to defend seats in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.
Even the fiercely nonpartisan Cook Political report shifted four Senate races to the Democrats, but that's from Solid Republican to Likely Republican, or from Lean Republican to Tossup. It's not exactly a dunk.
But the Times story has begun to echo on television.
“Republicans are starting to worry about losing the Senate,” blared an MS NOW banner.
Top Times coverage: “If a blue wave materializes, Democrats have a chance to seize it to control the Senate.”
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But here's the thing. It is an off-year election. Let's not forget: it all depends on participation.
If Trump voters are demoralized, many may stay home. If Democratic voters are angry but not to the point of going to the polls, that will cushion the impact.
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If politics were predictable, pontificators and junkies would have much less material for their endless discussions.
Note: I'm ready to eat crow on November 3rd.
