Well, my break from NBA betting didn't last long as I'm back with tonight's Eastern Conference Game 5 between the Cavs and Pistons. It hasn't been a great second round of the NBA Playoffs for me, so if you want to fade away, I don't blame you, but I do feel pretty good about the play.
The Cleveland Cavaliers returned home and did exactly what they had to do to maintain any hope of advancing to the Eastern Conference Finals.
After losing the first two games of the series, they were able to take both games at home in Cleveland. Now they need to do something they still have to do in the playoffs: win a road game. The team was nine games over .500 on the road in the regular season, so it's not like they couldn't win on the road.
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Detroit Pistons PG Cade Cunningham drives to the basket over Cleveland Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell in Game 1 of their 2026 NBA Playoffs second-round series at Little Caesars Arena in Michigan. (Images by Rick Osentoski-Imagn)
The Cavs have beaten the Pistons on the road this year, early in the season, but whatever is causing them problems in the postseason has kept them from winning. Part of this is that they can't seem to close the games. James Harden and Donovan Mitchell are really good individual players, but neither seems to want to take over the close games this postseason.
The Detroit Pistons are not very happy with the way they have been officiated. However, there really isn't any team that I would say is happy with the way they have called the games this postseason. Unlike what I've said about the Lakers, the Pistons may have a legitimate complaint. In Game 4 alone, the Cavs shot 34 free throws compared to just 12 for Detroit. Mitchell shot more (15) than the entire Pistons roster. It was closer in Game 3, but the Cavs still had 28 attempts compared to the Pistons' 22.
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Cleveland Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell drives to the basket on Detroit Pistons PG Cade Cunningham at Rocket Arena in Ohio. (Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
Again, an argument can be made about who drives the ball more, but it would be difficult to see one team committing many more fouls than the other. Still, even with that disparity in Game 4, it took a historic performance from Mitchell and the free throws to give the Cavs the victory. The Pistons only lost by nine points.
The squeaky wheel seems to get greased. That seems to be the case with most sports. If a team complains about fouls and there is reasonable legitimacy, as there is here, I tend to see them get a more favorable whistle in the next game.
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Detroit Pistons PG Cade Cunningham defends Cleveland Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell at Little Caesars Arena in Michigan. (David Reginek/Imagn Images)
We've already seen the Cavs' struggles on the road, but this series could legitimately be a sweep for either team or a tie (as it stands). It's about who closes out games better down the stretch. The games have been a little lower scored, but I expect the clock to stop more here with more free throws for the Pistons, and still around 20 for the Cavs. This game should be over 211.5 now that both offenses are comfortable. Mitchell may have found his rhythm as well, which will also lead to more scoring. Back off.
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