On the cusp of California's gubernatorial primary on June 2, a poll shows voters are narrowly divided between three candidates vying to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom at a perilous moment in history for the state and the nation.
Among likely California voters, 25% support Xavier Becerra, a Democrat and former Biden Cabinet secretary, according to the poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times and published Thursday. Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News commentator and British political strategist, has 21% backing, while billionaire hedge fund founder Tom Steyer, a 19%-backed Democrat, has become an environmental activist.
California gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra takes a selfie while campaigning Tuesday at an event in San Francisco.
(Benjamín Fanjoy / Getty Images)
The poll provided the clearest indication yet that the three have separated themselves from the rest of the field. Support for Becerra, Hilton and Steyer has increased since the last Berkeley IGS poll in March. Becerra surpassed everyone. In early March, he was near the bottom of the pack with just 5% support among likely voters, and now he is the favorite.
The other candidates failed. Support for Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, fell 5% and now sits in a distant fourth place. Former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine fell nearly half to 7%. San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and State Supt. Public Instruction's Tony Thurmond, all Democrats, remained stuck in single digits.
Poll director Mark DiCamillo cautioned that it is still unclear which candidates will finish first and second in the June 2 primary, a critical issue since only the top two finishers will advance to the November general election, regardless of their party affiliation. The low voter turnout so far makes predicting the outcome especially difficult.
Although every registered voter in California was mailed a ballot, many did not return it or drop it off at the polls, a telling sign of the uncertain nature of this year's gubernatorial race. The poll, which included all 61 gubernatorial candidates on the ballot, found that Democratic turnout so far is noticeably lower compared to previous primaries, DiCamillo said.
Steve Hilton arrives at a press conference at the San Jose Diridon train station on Tuesday.
(Jason Henry/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“We're assuming that … Democrats will actually turn out to vote in the final week after we've concluded our polling and begin to make up ground on what looks like an early lead for Hilton, and those voters favor Becerra,” DiCamillo said.
The poll, conducted between May 19 and 24, found that likely Democratic voters favored Becerra over Steyer by 11 percentage points. Voters registered as “no party preference” were evenly split between Becerra, Steyer and Hilton. Among likely Republican voters, Hilton led Bianco by almost 2 to 1.
Becerra also had a notable lead over Steyer among women and Latino voters, while Steyer had an advantage among black voters. Hilton was favored over the two Democrats among self-identified libertarians and among voters in Orange County, the Central Valley and the North Coast and Sierra region.
The survey found that 7% of voters remained undecided.
For the first time in more than a quarter-century, the race to lead the country's most populous state and the world's fourth-largest economy has consistently lacked a favorite despite a plethora of candidates.
Two of California's best-known Democrats, former Vice President Kamala Harris and U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla, considered running for governor before deciding not to run, contributing to the slow pace of the race. The 2026 gubernatorial campaign also languished in the shadow of the chaos wrought by President Trump, including his immigration raids across Southern California and the devastation wrought by the 2025 Pacific Palisades and Altadena wildfires.
But a whirlwind of recent events has drawn attention to the race.
Former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Dublin), once a frontrunner in the race, has withdrawn from the race and resigned from Congress in the wake of multiple allegations of sexual misconduct and assault that he denies.
Tom Steyer participates in a campaign event in Santa Rosa on Wednesday.
(David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
In addition, record amounts of money have been invested in the race. Steyer has broken state self-funding records by contributing $212 million to his campaign as of Tuesday, according to the California secretary of state's office. Nearly $85 million has been donated to independent spending committees by corporations, unions, tech titans, Native American tribes and other special interests, most of whom will have political interests that will be before the next governor.
Although California's 2026 gubernatorial race lacks the appeal of recent contests featuring candidates such as global movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger, political scion Jerry Brown and former San Francisco mayor and likely 2028 presidential candidate Gavin Newsom, it is unfolding at a crucial time for Californians.
The state's most vulnerable residents face severe reductions in health care due to looming federal cuts in health care funding, and California's budget, already volatile due to its reliance on the state's wealthiest residents, may become more unpredictable. California's highest-in-the-nation gas prices rose further due to the US-Iran war, adding to the state's entrenched affordability crisis, which has driven many residents out of the state.
According to the survey, the cost of living, homelessness and public safety were among the top concerns expressed by voters. Most voters also supported protecting voting rights, although their underlying concerns could be markedly different depending on their political views.
Democrats have focused on voter disenfranchisement, a fear that has intensified following a recent Supreme Court decision that gutted a section of the Voting Rights Act that required states to draw congressional districts to help elect black or Latino representatives to Congress. Republicans echo President Trump's claims that the election is rigged.
Chad Bianco is interviewed May 6 after the gubernatorial debate at the Skirball Cultural Center in Los Angeles.
(Jason Armond / Los Angeles Times)
Voters are largely divided along partisan lines on issues such as Trump's policies on climate change, immigration and taxes.
Voter uncertainty in the gubernatorial race is due in part to California's unique, voter-approved “jungle” primary system, in which the two candidates who win the most votes in the June 2 primary advance to the November general election, regardless of their party affiliation.
Although the state's voters are mostly registered Democrats, party leaders feared earlier this year that they would split among the multiple Democrats on the ballot, prompting Hilton and Bianco to advance to the November general election and ensure that a Republican would be elected governor. Bianco won 11% support in the new Berkeley poll.
Republicans were once roughly tied in the polls, until Trump endorsed Hilton in April. More than a third of likely Republican voters said Trump's endorsement of Hilton made them more likely to support him. Among voters who identified with the “Make America Great Again” movement, nearly two-thirds supported Hilton, while fewer than 3 in 10 backed Bianco.
Although Bianco's supporters appear to be more passionate, “Hilton has a much broader base of support and then got Trump's endorsement,” DiCamillo said.
He added that Hilton's rise is unusual in California, where statewide candidates often spend huge sums of money to increase their visibility among the state's 23.1 million registered voters.
“The interesting thing about Hilton is that she hasn't really done much of her campaigning in the traditional way. She hasn't done large amounts of television advertising, you don't see her name in traditional media except free media,” DiCamillo said. “You can see that in the data, because almost a third of voters still don't have an opinion on Hilton… over what he was in March, which is surprising for a candidate who is among the leaders.”
Democrats' fear of being shut out of the November general election led party leaders and allies to effectively urge low-polling candidates to drop out of the race in notable public statements in March.
Since then, things have changed: The prospect of two Republicans winning top spots in the June primaries appears nonexistent, while polls show a slim chance of two Democrats advancing to the general election.
“I'm not saying it's likely, but it's possible that two Democrats could emerge, and that would have huge implications for turnout in the election. [November] elections,” DiCamillo said, pointing to California congressional races that could shape control of the U.S. House of Representatives. “If you don't have a Republican at the top of the ticket, the Republicans' chances would be bleak.”
The survey of 8,578 registered California voters was conducted online in English and Spanish and has a margin of error of about 2 percentage points in either direction.
