After disappointing at the 2023 Women's World Cup, the U.S. Women's National Team is once again the favorite in a major soccer tournament final after entering the Olympics with unlikely odds to win.
The U.S. women's national team is at -225 odds to win the gold medal to +160 for Brazil, while the three-way line shows the U.S. as the -105 favorite and Brazil as the +300 underdog as of Thursday afternoon on ESPN BET.
The odds of a tie in regulation are +210. Both of the U.S. women's qualifying matches at the Paris Games went to overtime, and the two previous Olympic gold medal meetings between the U.S. and Brazil (in 2004 and 2008) ended in a tie in regulation, with the U.S. team winning both times.
Despite 86% of bets and 94.6% of bets favoring the United States at the three-point line, the price has widened from the -115 start, according to ESPN BET. The same goes for Brazil, which opened at +270, but the draw has shortened slightly from the +215 start.
Other sportsbooks report similar numbers for the U.S. women’s team, though it’s worth noting that 48% of bets are on Brazil to take home gold at ESPN BET (with just 43% of bets). BetMGM says the U.S. women’s team wins in overtime (+825) is one of its most popular bets.
The U.S. women’s national team, a longtime powerhouse in women’s soccer, was a -175 favorite heading into the 2020 Olympics, but after failing to win gold at that tournament and being eliminated from the World Cup, the Americans entered this year’s Olympic contention at +190, putting them behind Spain (+175) on the odds board. Spain was ultimately relegated to the bronze medal match after falling to Brazil in the semifinals.
In addition to the home country appeal, this gave the USWNT a healthy share of gold medal futures bets at American sportsbooks, with FanDuel reporting 74% and DraftKings reporting 82%, though interestingly, Spain (51%) had more tickets at the sportsbook than the U.S. (42%).
Interest in Olympic women's soccer has increased as the tournament has progressed: ESPN BET says its five most-bet matches of the event were all in the knockout stages, with USWNT vs. Germany in the semifinals and USWNT vs. Japan in the quarterfinals topping the list.
