rose to $4,600 per ounce on Tuesday, continuing its recovery from the previous session, and is now trading around $4,548. Market sentiment was supported by hopes of a possible resumption of negotiations between the United States and Iran, which has somewhat alleviated concerns about inflation and the energy crisis.
US President Donald Trump announced that he had postponed a planned attack on Iran following calls from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. According to him, the Gulf States believe that an agreement with Tehran is still possible.
Previously, gold had been under pressure due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Rising oil prices increased inflation risks and reinforced expectations of further interest rate increases by global central banks.
In addition, the acceleration of US inflation continues to weigh on the market. Investors are revising their expectations for Federal Reserve policy, and the likelihood of a rate cut this year is decreasing significantly. Discussions are increasingly focusing on the possibility of another rate hike before the end of the year.
Market attention is now focused on the upcoming release of the FOMC minutes and preliminary US PMI data. These reports could provide new signals on the state of the economy and the Federal Reserve's next steps.
Technical analysis
On the H4 chart, gold has recovered towards $4,590 and is now declining towards $4,400. A corrective bounce to $4,550 is possible, followed by a further decline towards $4,250. The MACD indicator confirms the current bearish momentum, with the signal line below the center line and pointing firmly downwards.
On the H1 chart, gold has broken below $4,555 and continues to decline towards $4,400. A corrective bounce to $4,550 may follow (testing from below), before a further decline towards $4,250. The stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with the signal line below 20 and pointing firmly downwards, indicating continued bearish pressure.
Conclusion
Gold is recovering from recent losses, supported by easing geopolitical tensions and hopes of resuming talks between the United States and Iran. However, strong US inflation and expectations of further Fed rate hikes continue to exert downward pressure. Technical indicators suggest a mixed near-term outlook, with possible corrective bounces followed by further declines.
By RoboForex Analysis Department
Disclaimer: Any forecast contained herein is based on the author's personal opinion. This analysis cannot be considered trading advice. RoboForex assumes no responsibility for trading results based on the trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
