is declining slightly in mid-week trading, holding near the 1.1700 area as price action remains relatively quiet. Market participants are largely on the sidelines ahead of the upcoming meeting, which could mark one of Jerome Powell's last appearances before his term ends in May.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Still, the main focus will be on how authorities assess the economic implications of current tensions in the Middle East.
The focus also extends to other key central banks, with the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Canada scheduled to release monetary policy decisions this week. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan has already moved slightly toward a more hawkish stance by maintaining its current stance.
Geopolitical developments continue to underpin demand for the US dollar. Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain stalled, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and inflationary pressures are rising. Reports also suggest that Donald Trump rejected Iran's recent proposal, emphasizing that nuclear discussions must be addressed from the beginning of any deal.
Technical analysis
On the H4 chart, EUR/USD is clearly trading within a descending channel, reflecting a controlled bearish structure. The price action continues to respect the upper and lower boundaries of the channel, indicating that sellers remain in control.
The current movement suggests a continuation of the bearish trajectory, with the price gradually falling within the channel. As long as the pair remains below the upper boundary, the bearish bias is likely to persist.
A new drop towards the 1.1643 area is expected as the next immediate bearish target. This level represents a key support zone and potential liquidity area, where the price can react or stabilize temporarily.
Conclusion
EUR/USD continues to trade in a tight range while maintaining a bearish structure on the upper time frame. Market sentiment remains cautious, with the US dollar supported by external factors and macroeconomic uncertainty.
In the short term, the pair is expected to decline towards the 1.1643 level. The general direction will depend on upcoming economic developments, but technically, the pressure will remain tilted downwards as long as the current structure is maintained.
