A new poll shows criminal defense attorney Nathan Hochman has a sizable lead over Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón in the race for the incumbent's seat.
If the Nov. 5 election were held today, 45 percent of likely voters in Los Angeles County would cast their ballots for Hochman, while only 20 percent would vote for Gascón, according to a new poll from UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by The Times.
As the election approaches, 35% of likely voters say they are still undecided. That gives candidates less than 80 days to educate those undecided voters about their platforms and backgrounds in hopes of swaying opinions.
But so far, there is “broad support for Hochman across nearly all subgroups,” according to Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll, which was conducted from July 31 to Aug. 11.
Gascón's image among voters is mostly negative: 21% have a favourable opinion and 45% an unfavourable opinion, while 34% have no opinion. In contrast, 35% have a favourable opinion of Hochman, just 7% have an unfavourable opinion and 57% have no opinion.
Although the poll results show Gascón faces an uphill battle for reelection, Hochman remains an unknown to many. Fifty-seven percent of the 1,136 likely Los Angeles County voters surveyed said they had “no opinion” of him, compared to 34 percent for Gascón.
Hochman, a former federal prosecutor and chairman of the Los Angeles Ethics Commission, has years of relevant experience. Democrats have tried to cast him as a Republican, and while he is an independent in this year’s race, he was a Republican candidate for state attorney general in 2022.
Many seem to blame Gascón for the feeling that crime is out of control, even though some statistics contradict that narrative.
In the new survey, 60% said they felt public safety in the county had declined over the past three years, while just 5% said it had improved. Of those who said it had improved, 28% said Gascón's policies contributed “to a great extent,” while 53% of those who said public safety had declined said Gascón's policies contributed “to a great extent” to that deterioration.
That doesn't bode well for Gascón, according to DiCamillo.
“Those who have an opinion of Nathan Hochman have an opinion and a positive image of him, which is a good place to start if you’re not well-known,” DiCamillo said. “Whereas Gascón has a negative image. In the polls, in my experience, one of the hardest things to do is overcome a negative image that has built up. It takes something significant.”
The election will help determine the future of criminal justice and law enforcement in Los Angeles County.
For Jody Armour, a USC law professor, “it’s really a referendum on what vision of criminal justice and public safety” resonates with the public.
The new poll, which had a 3-point margin of error, offers insight into how voters think about the race as Election Day approaches. Voters will head to the polls four years after the Black Lives Matter and police reform movements ushered in left-leaning district attorneys in communities across the country, including Gascón.
“This election will be a referendum on whether Los Angeles really wants to embrace criminal justice reform and the spirit of the progressive prosecutor movement that reimagines safety as something that has nothing to do with longer sentences, because the data shows that longer sentences don’t necessarily make us safer,” Armour said.
That message doesn't seem to have resonated with many voters surveyed in the new poll. By some measures, crime has declined in Los Angeles during Gascón's tenure and in recent decades.
For example, in the city of Los Angeles, violent crime was down nearly 7% year-over-year through October 2023, with 1,650 fewer violent incidents reported to police through Sept. 30, 2023, compared to the same date in 2022, according to data from the Los Angeles Police Department. Petty theft was up 14% over the period, but other property crimes, as well as homicides, robberies, and rapes, were down in the city.
But crime has risen by other measures, as Gascón’s opponents are quick to point out. For example, Los Angeles County recorded 212 homicides last year, compared with 195 in 2022 — an 8% increase, according to the Sheriff’s Department.
Only a tenth of voters surveyed in the new Berkeley IGS poll said Gascón would do a better job addressing organized shoplifting and burglary, a hot-button issue in Los Angeles, which has seen a surge in brazen crime in recent years. For Hochman, that figure was 38% — roughly the same percentage who thought he would do a better job prosecuting cases involving violent crime compared to Gascón.
That doesn't surprise Hochman, who spoke to The Times about the poll on Thursday.
“This poll is consistent with everything we’ve seen since the March 5 primary,” Hochman said. “Poll after poll basically shows that Los Angeles voters are tired of crime and feel less safe today than they did when George Gascón took office in 2020. And they want a district attorney who will enforce the law fairly and make them feel safe again.”
Gascón's campaign did not make him available for an interview about the poll, instead providing a brief statement via email.
“Hochman is betting that voters will forget that he will remain a Republican until 2022, which represents six years of hate and bigotry from Donald Trump,” wrote Gascón’s campaign strategist Jamarah Hayner. “In Los Angeles, it’s a long shot.”
Michael Trujillo, a veteran campaign consultant and senior adviser to an anti-Gascón independent expenditure committee, said he believes the Berkeley IGS poll shows Hochman is striking a chord with voters.
“I think Nathan Hochman has to prove to the Democrats in the county why he is the best choice,” Trujillo said. “And as of today, I think he has a very good chance of doing that, given that District Attorney Gascón is weak countywide.”
Gascón’s time as district attorney has been marred by trouble. Twenty prosecutors have accused him of workplace retaliation and he has been named in more than a dozen civil lawsuits, most of which were filed by his own employees.
And earlier this year, California Attorney General Rob Bonta announced 11 felony charges against Diana Teran, a top aide to Gascón who oversaw ethics and integrity in the district attorney’s office, alleging that she illegally flagged the names of several sheriff’s deputies for inclusion in a database of officers accused of misconduct. State prosecutors dropped three of the charges against Teran this month, and she has denied any wrongdoing.
If Gascón hopes to reverse the trends reflected in these latest survey numbers, according to USC's Armour, he needs to change the narrative.
“Part of the district attorney’s job description will not only be to craft good criminal justice policy that his office will enforce, but to communicate to the public a very clear picture of what is happening with crime and punishment in Los Angeles County,” Armour said. “He has to view his role as both a good communicator who clearly lays out the facts and a good administrator.”
