World Cup travel push has yet to materialize for U.S. companies

The 2026 World Cup is expected to bring a wave of soccer fans from around the world to North America. But the travel boom is shaping up to look less like a uniform increase and more like a test of pricing power city by city, game by game.

“Demand is real and positive, but it is not evenly distributed among host cities,” said Jay Wardle, president of travel data intelligence company Sojern.

New flight booking data from Sojern shows that most US and Canadian host cities are seeing year-over-year gains during the tournament window, led by Houston and Dallas. But Seattle and the three host Mexican cities are lagging behind last year's pace.

The tournament begins Thursday in Mexico City and will run through mid-July, ending with the final at New York New Jersey Stadium, better known as MetLife Stadium, in East Rutherford, New Jersey. It is the largest World Cup in history, with 48 teams, 104 matches and matches in the United States, Canada and Mexico.

For hotels, restaurants, airlines, ride-sharing companies and host cities, the narrative has been simple: more teams, more games, more fans and more spending.

FIFA has projected that the event could contribute up to $17.2 billion to the United States' GDP.

But Deutsche Bank said that even if it brings 1.2 million international fans to North America, the overall economic impact will likely be limited in a U.S. economy of this size, equating to a near-term GDP increase of about 0.05% if FIFA's estimate is met.

The financial boom is likely to be divided unevenly among cities, hotels, restaurants and other businesses that depend on tourism.

Airbnb said it expects the best event in its history, surpassing the 2024 Paris Olympics. The company hopes to benefit from families and groups looking for larger accommodations or lower per-person costs.

You could also benefit from travelers' length of stay. Sojern data shows that more than three-quarters of World Cup travelers plan to spend six to 12 nights at their destination.

“We are quite excited about the impact of FIFA as we look at booking patterns heading into the summer.” Marriott CEO Tony Capuano told CNBC. “We are seeing really strong demand patterns in both FIFA and non-FIFA cities in the United States”

Capuano said Marriott expects the World Cup to increase revenue per available room in the United States by about 40 basis points.

Marriott, the world's largest hotel chain, said it is particularly well positioned due to its brand recognition and rewards ecosystem.

“Because of the breadth of our global footprint, we have deep experience, whether it's FIFA, the Olympics or the Super Bowl,” Capuano said. “The booking patterns we're seeing are pretty much in line with our expectations.”

Capuano said some release of FIFA room blocks had been anticipated and that current bookings are “on track” with Marriott's forecast. The most important variable, he said, will be the later rounds, when travel demand could change depending on which national teams advance.

Jim Allen, president of Hard Rock International and CEO of Seminole Gaming, said South Florida is already seeing a boost related to the World Cup. Allen said more than half of the tickets for games in the Miami area are purchased by locals, while the rest come from tourists.

He said Miami's deep ties to Central and South America are helping drive demand, along with the region's existing tourism infrastructure and soccer culture.

For Hard Rock, Allen said the World Cup is already generating high-level international traffic. He said the company is welcoming guests from multiple continents, including some staying at Hard Rock properties for the first time.

He also said casino gambling tied to the event is exceeding normal levels and rivaling the type of activity Hard Rock sees at major events like the Super Bowl and Formula One.

Sojern flight booking data shows an increase of almost 8% in Miami, and New York shows almost the same increase. Dallas-Fort Worth is seeing an increase of about 10% and almost 13% in Houston.

But not all cities are experiencing the same increase. For example, Seattle flight bookings are almost 21% lower than this time last year.

The expanded format of the World Cup means more inventory and more tickets to sell for more matches. Marquee games, matches with the host country and the final are still expected to have premium demand. But lower-profile group stage games in big NFL stadiums have been harder to fill, especially as ticket prices remain high, on par with Super Bowl-level scarcity.

That creates a pricing challenge. Host cities and hotel owners prepared for a once-in-a-generation event. But fans are making practical decisions: which game is worth traveling to, how far they are willing to travel, whether to stay in a hotel or a short-term rental and whether the prices still make sense.

Rosanna Maietta, president and CEO of the American Hotel & Lodging Association, said hotel demand in host cities has “evolved differently than many initially anticipated,” driven in part by lower-than-expected international visitation numbers.

A survey by the industry group in April showed that 80% of respondents reported that bookings were not meeting expectations. Some were furious that FIFA had canceled large blocks of rooms they had previously booked.

But he said AHLA members are now seeing an increase in demand, in line with shorter booking periods for major events.

“Unlike typical leisure trips, many visitors are still finalizing their plans and getting their tickets,” Maietta said. “The industry expects some acceleration of late bookings in the run-up to individual matches and we believe stadium attendance will be strong.”

Sojern said historically 35% of hotel bookings in World Cup host cities are made in the last seven days before travel.

FIFA president Gianni Infantino played down any concerns about disappointing results on the road. He told CNBC's Sara Eisen on Tuesday: “We should do the analysis after the end of the World Cup. We have never seen so many requests for tickets.”

Deutsche Bank said hotel real estate investment trusts with greater exposure to full-service hotels could benefit from World Cup demand as team delegations, sponsors and business groups use not only rooms but also meeting spaces and food and beverage outlets. Overall, the company has built in revenue of 50 to 75 basis points per available room elevator into its tournament-linked hotel REIT models. He also expects luxury hotels to benefit more than budget properties.

Restaurants may be better positioned to benefit broadly. Deutsche Bank said food service companies should benefit from both tourism and watch parties, especially restaurants near stadiums and host cities, delivery concepts like pizza and wings, and sports bars that show games during North American time zones.

Derek Evans, CEO of the Marcus Samuelsson Group, told CNBC that in the restaurant business, it's too early to count your chickens.

“You haven't seen the fandom really kick in yet,” he said. “When your country's team starts winning is when travel budgets go out the window.”

Ride-sharing companies like Uber and Lyft You could also see increased demand around matches.

The key question for host cities is whether even the world's biggest sporting event has a price cap.

Disclosure: CNBC parent Versant airs Olympic coverage produced by NBC Sports on its networks, including USA Network and CNBC.