A United Airlines plane approaches the runway at Denver International Airport on March 23, 2026.
To Drago | fake images
united airlines cut its 2026 profit outlook on Tuesday as it grapples with a rise in jet fuel prices due to the Iran war.
United said it could earn between $7 and $11 a share on an adjusted basis this year, down from its previous forecast of $12 to $14 a share it issued in January, more than a month before the United States and Israel attacked Iran.
The airline, like others, is cutting some of its scheduled flights this year to cut costs. As a result, Wall Street had already been adjusting its expectations for the year. Analysts surveyed by LSEG had forecast United's full-year adjusted earnings would be $9.58 per share.
For the second quarter, United forecast adjusted earnings of between $1 and $2 per share. Analysts were expecting $2.08 per share for the quarter. United estimated fuel prices would average $4.30 a gallon in the second quarter.
The airline said it expects its revenue to cover 40% to 50% of the fuel price increase in the second quarter, up to 80% in the third and 85% to 100% by the end of the year.
United reiterated that it is adjusting its schedules to accommodate higher fuel, and capacity in the second half of the year is expected to hold steady up about 2% year over year. It grew 3.4% in the first quarter.
Here's what United Airlines reported for the quarter ending March 31 compared to what Wall Street expected, according to estimates compiled by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: $1.19 adjusted vs. $1.07 expected
- Revenue: $14.61 billion vs. $14.37 billion expected
Revenue and profit growth
Overall revenue rose more than 10% to $14.61 billion, up from $13.21 billion a year earlier.
During the first quarter, United's net income rose 80% to $699 million, or 2.14 cents per share, compared with net income of $387 million, or 1.16 cents per share, a year earlier. Adjusted for one-time items, United posted earnings per share of $1.19 per share.
Unit revenue increased across all reported segments, including US domestic flights, where it rose 7.9% to $7.9 billion year-over-year, indicating strong pricing power in the quarter.
“These are results our employees can be proud of and show the resilience of our long-term strategy, even in the face of increased fuel spending,” CEO Scott Kirby said in an earnings release.
Jet fuel in the United States was trading at $3.51 a gallon on Monday, down from an April 2 high of $4.78 but well above $2.39 on Feb. 27, the day before the first attacks on Iran, according to prices assessed by Platts.
Airline executives have said demand has remained strong even as fares and checked bag charges have increased as they pass higher fuel prices on to customers. The industry has become more reliant on travelers who are willing to shell out more for larger flights and seats, and who are less affected by price increases.
Alaska Airlines It withdrew its 2026 forecast on Monday due to rising fuel prices. It has increased fees by about $25, CEO Ben Minicucci told analysts Tuesday.
Merger ambitions?
United CEO Scott Kirby is likely to face questions on the company's earnings conference call at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday about his ambitions to merge with another airline.
Kirby raised a possible merger with american airlines to a Trump administration official earlier this year, according to a person familiar with the matter, but President Donald Trump said he was against the idea.
“I don't like them merging,” he told CNBC's “Squawk Box” Tuesday morning. He said he would like someone to buy the discount airline Spirit, but also suggested the federal government could “help him.”
American also rejected the idea of a merger with United last week.
