Still from “Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu”.
“Star Wars” returns to the big screen for the first time in seven years this weekend, aboard a Mandalorian's jetpack.
disney “Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu” grossed $12 million in advance sales Thursday night, the lowest advance ticket gross in franchise history, according to Comscore data. “Solo: A Star Wars Story” was the previous low, with $14.1 million in pre-show receipts in 2018.
Box office analysts expect the film, based on the hit Disney+ show “The Mandalorian,” to make around $80 million over its three-day opening weekend and around $95 million over the four-day Memorial Day holiday weekend. Some less conservative experts have estimated that the three-day haul could be as high as $95 million and the holiday weekend could bring in $115 million.
It would be one of the smallest openings for a Star Wars film in modern film history. “Solo” grossed $84.4 million during its release eight years ago. Since 2015, only “Solo” has opened to less than $100 million domestically, Comscore data shows.
“The Mandalorian and Grogu” will likely benefit from the TV show's popularity, the long Memorial Day weekend and limited competition from new titles, especially on premium large-format screens.
It will also act as a stress test for future Star Wars theatrical releases amid a lackluster film run for Star Wars and Marvel, the major franchises that helped Disney dominate the global box office in the 2010s. The studio has “Starfighter” hitting theaters in 2027 starring Ryan Gosling and directed by Shawn Levy.
New Star Wars titles have been absent from theaters since 2019's “The Rise of Skywalker.” The final film in the Skywalker saga and third film in what is known as the sequel trilogy generated more than $1 billion, but was widely panned by critics and fans. Disney and its Lucasfilm studio paused theatrical productions in favor of re-establishing the franchise on the Disney+ streaming service.
“The Mandalorian,” which premiered just a month before “The Rise of Skywalker,” was a huge hit for the company and inspired a number of live-action Star Wars projects to run as a series rather than a theatrical one. These include “Andor,” “Obi-Wan Kenobi,” “Ahsoka,” “Skeleton Crew,” “The Acolyte” and “The Book of Boba Fett.”
Lucasfilm has hired director Jon Favreau, who worked alongside newly appointed studio boss Dave Filoni to bring “The Mandalorian” to Disney+, to direct “The Mandalorian and Grogu.” The feature film had a slightly smaller budget than typical Star Wars films, and the production cost was estimated to be around $165 million. Other Star Wars projects released theatrically in the previous decade had production budgets of $250 million or more, according to data from The Numbers.
This means that “The Mandalorian and Grogu” has a lower breakeven point than previous titles in the franchise. Of course, those production budgets don't include marketing spending.
For parent company Disney, it's not just about the box office numbers. The film has a strong consumer product launch tied to its release.
The Star Wars franchise has consistently been a big seller even without a theatrical release. So having new products in a variety of categories and brands could be a big boon for the company, especially after the character Grogu, known as “Baby Yoda,” was a big hit with fans.
In particular, following the 2015 release of “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” the first in Lucasfilm's latest Star Wars trilogy, Hasbro Sales of Star Wars products alone reached almost half a billion dollars.
Disney is already making connections at its theme park locations, including specialty merchandise and a revamp of its Smugglers Run attraction featuring Grogu.
