WASHINGTON- Critical negotiations this weekend in Pakistan between the United States and Iran could hinge on developments in Lebanon, where continued Israeli strikes on Thursday risk derailing a broader regional ceasefire.
Tensions only deepened amid reports of limited Iranian drone strikes across the region, and as Arab states warned that the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global shipping route, had only partially reopened despite assurances from President Trump that Tehran had guaranteed full access.
Evidence of the ceasefire has not yet deterred Iranian and American officials from their plans to travel to Pakistan on Saturday for the highest-level talks between the two nations aimed at a final agreement to end the war, now in their sixth week. But Iranian state media suggested on Thursday that Tehran's delegation might not attend if the Israeli campaign continues in Lebanon.
The stakes are high for Iran, which has been hit by US attacks, and for Trump, whose continuation of the war has been unpopular domestically. The plan appeared precarious Thursday morning, amid continuing disagreement over whether the ceasefire included Lebanon.
Iran warned that continued Israeli attacks on the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon could jeopardize the two-day truce. Hours later, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his government would begin direct negotiations with Lebanon, but later declared he would not cease attacks there.
His decision to negotiate with the Lebanese came a day after President Trump asked Netanyahu to halt operations in Lebanon ahead of talks with Pakistan, a source familiar with the matter told the Times. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told reporters on Thursday that the start of talks would be “contingent” on the cessation of hostilities in Lebanon.
As Israel's stance on Lebanon injected uncertainty into the situation on Thursday, the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran agreed to reopen in the ceasefire deal, remained closed, according to Sultan Al Jaber, a minister in the UAE government. Traffic through the strait was below 10% of its usual volume on Thursday, with only seven ships passing through it in a 24-hour period, Reuters reported.
“Iran is doing a very poor job, some would say dishonorable, of allowing oil to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. That is not the agreement we have!” Trump wrote on social media Thursday night.
Still, the president had projected optimism Thursday about the weekend negotiations in Islamabad, even as the U.S. position appeared to weaken.
“I talked to Bibi and he's going to be discreet. I just think we have to be a little more discreet,” Trump said. in an interview with NBC News. He said he was “very optimistic” that a deal with Iran was possible.
A White House official said Vice President JD Vance will lead the US delegation, which will also include special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the president's son-in-law. They would be the highest-level talks between the United States and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
An Israeli official said separate talks with Lebanon, to be conducted by the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in Washington, would begin next week at the State Department. A State Department official confirmed that the agency would host the talks.
Israel is not a direct party to the weekend negotiations in Pakistan between the United States and Iran. But “the United States knows our red lines in terms of nuclear disarmament, substitutes and ballistic missile production,” the Israeli official said. “We think we're on the same page here.”
Tuesday night's ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran came after 39 days of conflict in the region, triggered by Trump's attack on Iran on February 28. Full terms have not been publicly disclosed and much uncertainty remains about the deal.
The agreement began a shaky start Wednesday: The strait remained restricted as the Iranians accused the Americans of violating the agreement and it emerged that the United States and Israel were at odds with Iran over whether Lebanon was part of the ceasefire.
Trump threatened Wednesday night on his social media website that if Iran did not honor the ceasefire, “then the 'shooting' will begin, bigger, better and stronger than anyone has seen before.”
The status of the deal became even more fragile as dawn broke on Thursday and Iran said Israeli strikes in Lebanon overnight violated the deal. European leaders and Pakistan's prime minister, who is mediating talks between the United States and Iran, warned that the operations could put the truce at risk.
“This is a dangerous sign of deception and lack of commitment to possible agreements,” said Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. saying Thursday. “Continuing these actions will make negotiations meaningless.”
The speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned of “explicit costs” for any measures that Iran considers violations of the ceasefire, saying that Lebanon was an “inseparable part” of the agreement.
Israel and the United States have said that Lebanon, where Israel says it is attacking Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants, was not part of the ceasefire agreement. Netanyahu said in a statement late Thursday that he was holding negotiations at the request of the Lebanese government.
“There is no ceasefire in Lebanon. We continue to attack Hezbollah with full force and we will not stop until we restore their security,” he stated.
Also on Thursday, House Republicans rejected an attempt by Democrats to vote on curbing Trump's war powers. Democratic leaders, who have expressed concern about Trump's Easter Sunday threat to wipe out Iranian civilization and said his statement amounted to a threat of war crimes, later called on President Mike Johnson (R-La.) to bring Congress back into session.
Meanwhile, Trump lashed out on his social media website at conservative figures who have criticized his approach to the war, including former Fox News hosts Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, calling them “stupid people” and proclaiming that the United States “is NOW THE 'HOTTEST' COUNTRY IN THE WORLD!”
He also continued to attack NATO members for failing to live up to his expectations by helping him in the war in Iran. In an earlier post Thursday, the president said the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has been “very disappointing” and suggested the United States needs to pressure its allies to respond to its needs.
This came after a meeting Wednesday afternoon with NATO Secretary Mark Rutte at the White House, after which Trump claimed online that “NATO WAS NOT THERE WHEN WE NEED IT, AND IT WON'T BE THERE IF WE NEED IT AGAIN.”
In an interview with CNN, Rutte said Trump had made clear his disappointment with NATO allies. Rutte said he had emphasized to Trump that a large majority of European nations have given the United States some logistical military aid, such as allowing American fighter jets to land at their bases and fly over their territories.
Lebanon's Health Ministry said Israel's surprise barrage of airstrikes on Wednesday killed 303 people and wounded about 1,150 more, in a preliminary toll. He added that the numbers are likely to rise as efforts to search for bodies and DNA testing continue.
If direct negotiations with Israel take place, it would break a long-standing political taboo for Lebanon. Successive governments have dealt with Israeli diplomats only to the extent of allowing technical discussions with Lebanese military officials through the United Nations.
The prospect of direct negotiations is likely to provoke fierce opposition from Hezbollah and its political ally, the Lebanese Shiite Amal party.
Both parties, which together form the so-called Shiite duo, are part of a voting bloc in parliament and hold important portfolios in Lebanon's cabinet, are already in a war of wills with the Lebanese government, which recently declared Iran's ambassador-designate persona non grata and ordered his departure.
Amal and Hezbollah officials told the designated ambassador to remain in Lebanon and urged the government to reverse its decision. He remains at the embassy in Beirut.
McDaniel and Wilner reported from Washington and Bulos from Amman, Jordan. Times staff writer Ana Ceballos in Washington contributed to this report.
