WASHINGTON: The battle for control of the US Congress entered its final six months on Sunday, with midterm elections in November that could reshape President Donald Trump's second term and redefine the balance of power in Washington.
As always, the midterm elections will be a referendum on the president, with Democrats hoping to capitalize on economic discontent and Trump's sagging approval ratings to take back the House and Senate, while Republicans struggle to defy political headwinds.
At stake is not just legislative control but the trajectory of Trump's agenda, with a Democratic-led Congress capable of launching investigations, blocking candidates and generally complicating the rest of his presidency.
Early indicators point to a challenging environment for Republicans, with Trump's approval rating around 40% and economic dissatisfaction – particularly inflation and costs related to the Iran war – eroding confidence.
Polls show Democrats holding a narrow lead on the generic ballot, while some polls suggest voters now trust them more on the economy.
A Republican-aligned group, AFP Action, warned that the party's Senate majority was “at risk,” citing “structural headwinds” and disengaged voters.
In midterm elections, Americans vote to fill all 435 House seats, about a third of the 100-member Senate and most of the governorships. Democrats need to take back three House seats and four Senate seats to take control.
“The Senate is on the table here,” Molly Murphy of the pollster Impact Research told the cable network. EM NOWpointing to Trump's waning popularity and strong Democratic turnout in recent elections.
“When the president's approval rating is at or below 40%, that's when you start to see these deeper rebounds in a much more Republican terrain.”
Still, the outlook remains fluid, with structural challenges for both sides.
“Always hard”
Republicans benefit from a favorable map in the Senate, and Democrats need to win in states Trump won.
And heavily gerrymandered districts — as well as a shrinking number of competitive seats — limit the extent to which a national shift can translate into gains in the House.
The campaign has been further complicated by a fierce redistricting battle, in which states including Texas, California, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Utah and Virginia are seeking new mid-decade voting maps.
The overall impact of the changes (along with a Supreme Court ruling limiting redistricting based on race) remains unclear.
Republicans are banking on financial advantages and voter concerns about immigration and national security, while Democrats focus on cost-of-living pressures and frame the election as a defense of democratic norms.
Before six months were up, Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer accused Republicans of undermining voting rights through overzealous initiatives on election security and immigration control.
“Let's call it what it is: an effort to manipulate the system,” he said.
For Republicans, the central challenge remains the president himself. Midterm elections typically punish the party in power, and Trump's weak approval ratings have heightened concerns.
At the same time, even some of his supporters say his focus on foreign policy, particularly the war with Iran, has diverted attention from the domestic economic concerns that typically dominate midterm campaigns.
Still, Republicans insist the race is far from settled and note that political conditions can change quickly before the election.
House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said CNBC that Republican prospects would depend on turnout and voters appreciating their party “delivering what we've delivered to finally begin to turn around this mess we inherited a year and a half ago.”
“Midterm elections are always difficult for the party in power, but this is not your father's Democratic Party,” Scalise said.
