WASHINGTON- With the Iran war in its fifth week, support for President Trump is at its lowest point in history, and a growing number of recent polls show him losing ground with key voting blocs that helped fuel his 2024 victory.
While public dissatisfaction is evident among many groups surveyed, the decline in support for the president has been most pronounced among Latino voters.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll released March 24 found that 36% of voters approve of the president's job performance, the lowest level during his second term. The survey found that 62% disapproved.
Other surveys, such as that of AP-NORC, place the figure at 38%.
In all, the president is underwater on almost every public policy issue. With the exception of crime, which is around 47% approval, according to experts, there has been no progress in any of the categories surveyed.
On immigration, the president's top issue, approval fell from about 45% at the end of 2025 to 39% in February, according to Reuters.
About 1 in 4 respondents approved of Trump's handling of the economy, Reuters found, as domestic gasoline prices rose by more than $1 a gallon after fighting began last month. The share of Republicans who disapprove of his handling of cost-of-living issues rose 7 points in a week to 34%.
The change comes amid growing economic unrest and a backlash amplified by the war in Iran. About 1 in 3 Americans approve of the military operation, according to a Reuters poll.
And a growing divide has emerged among prominent conservatives over U.S. involvement in the Middle East.
The clashes have played out in public and are exposing tensions within the Republican Party, with conservative commentators like Megyn Kelly openly questioning whether war is in America's best interest.
“This is not a foreign policy that makes sense and it is not what Trump used. It is, in many ways, a betrayal of his campaign promises, of what he sold himself and his MAGA base,” Kelly said earlier this month.
Other conservative pundits, including Candace Owens, Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes, also oppose it.
But the real damage is playing out in the one place Trump can't afford to lose: his base.
Trump began his second term buoyed by historic gains among Latino voters. Exit polls indicated he improved his standing among them by more than 20 percentage points in 2024 compared to his 2016 victory, fueling widespread narratives that demographics were undergoing a lasting shift toward Republicans. In total, 48% of Latinos gave him their support in the last elections.
Since then, his approval among Latino voters has plummeted to 22%, according to a March 2026 analysis by The Economist.
In a bipartisan UnidosUS poll released in November, 14% of Latino voters said their lives got better after Trump took office, while 39% said they got worse.
The president's relationship with Latinos reflects deep dissatisfaction with economic conditions, according to Mike Madrid, a veteran California Republican political consultant and expert on Latino voting trends.
“To a large extent, this is a function of economics and affordability,” he said. “Latino voters turned away from Biden-Harris for exactly the same reasons they are turning away from Donald Trump right now.”
Research and polls suggest that Latino voters prioritize cost-of-living issues (such as housing, wages and inflation) over immigration, an issue that is often emphasized in national messages.
“It's not even close,” Madrid said. “Immigration is not even one of the top five issues for Latino voters.”
Madrid suggested that the demographic rebound is less of a “reversal” and more of a reflection of a rapidly changing electorate.
“Latinos have become the only true swing vote in the United States,” he said. “And they are rejecting whichever party is in power.”
These volatile double-digit voting swings are in direct contrast to more stable voting patterns among other major demographic groups, including white and black electorates, where changes from cycle to cycle tend to be only a few points.
The reason: dramatic fluctuations in turnout. Who decides to show up or stay home on Election Day tends to change year to year. This is compounded by the fact that there are many more first-time Latino voters than in any other category.
Polls this month suggest Trump is also losing ground among young voters, another group that contributed to his gains in 2024.
More than half of men under 30 supported Trump in that election, helping him swing several swing states.
In just one year, that demographic has plummeted 20 points.
“Trump won in 2024 because of men. They're abandoning him right now,” CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten said Tuesday.
The changes could have huge implications for the November midterms, particularly in competitive congressional districts where small changes could determine control of the House.
Republicans have warned that if they lose their narrow majority in Congress, Trump will likely face a third impeachment trial.
UCLA political scientist Matt Barreto said the Republican shift is already visible in real-world election results, not just in polls.
“We have already seen in the legislative and gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey really big changes in the Latino vote, 25 points towards the Democratic Party,” Barreto said. He added that similar patterns have emerged in places like Miami and Texas, where Democratic candidates have exceeded expectations with strong Latino support.
Latino Democrats who did not participate in the 2024 elections are returning to the electorate, while some Latino Republicans are dropping out, he said.
That dynamic could prove decisive in November. There are more than 40 congressional districts where the number of registered Latino voters exceeds the margin of victory in 2024, Barreto said. Many of them are closely divided between parties.
“At the district level, the Latino vote is going to have an enormous impact,” he said.
