The small state of Iowa has a huge role in the election of the president

With freezing temperatures, Iowans will gather Monday in churches, high school gymnasiums and community centers to select the Republican presidential candidate they want to be their standard bearer in November. Once again, a small portion of the American public (a group smaller than the population of Huntington Beach) – will create global headlines about the first presidential nomination race of the year.

Why is Iowa—an agrarian, elderly, overwhelmingly white state with relatively few residents—playing such an enormous role in the presidential race? Especially when California is so much more representative of the demographics and future of the nation?

These concerns were not present when the modern primary calendar was developed in the late 20th century, said Dan Schnur, a politics professor at USC, Pepperdine and UC Berkeley. He added that while he understands Californians' frustrations, the state has been blessed in many other ways.

“We have Hollywood and we have Silicon Valley. We have the beaches and the mountains. “We have more electoral votes in the general election than any other state in the country,” he said. “Let them have a few weeks in the spotlight.”

By any measure, California's 39.2 million residents are more representative of the nation's future than Iowa's 3.2 million.

Nearly 84% of Hawkeye State residents are non-Latino white, compared to 59% of Americans and 35% of Californians. Iowa is home to the most seniors. California has a much higher median income and is more densely populated.

Even some Iowans agree there is cause for concern.

“It's a real honor for us to have this role,” said retired French professor Gene Larson after watching former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speak to voters in Ankeny. “I don't know if she could say we should have it.”

Retired French teacher Gene Larson, 71, describes himself as a centrist who has voted for presidential candidates from both parties.

(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)

The 71-year-old, who described himself as a centrist who voted for presidential candidates from both parties, said the nature of the caucuses has changed, as has the nation's demographics.

“We are definitely not racially representative of the country, there is no doubt about that. I don’t think it follows that we are biased,” he said, pointing to the then-senator. Barack Obama's surprising victory in the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses, which laid the groundwork for his election to the White House, a moment often highlighted by defenders of Iowa's role in the nominating process.

That said, it would make sense to review the process, even if it means Iowa loses its status, he said.

“It would be good [if] It is spread throughout the country. I've also seen the idea of ​​six or eight states being organized into groups and having the different groups go first each year. I think that might be fair,” he said.

“In the beginning, we prided ourselves on the small-town atmosphere, where candidates had to demonstrate that they were people-oriented to be successful. I think that has some merit compared to going to a big TV state” like California, Larson added. “But I think it's important to share it and I think maybe it's time to share it.”

Others argue that while the nomination system is not perfect, it gives middle-aged Americans the opportunity to come together and challenge candidates in a way that would never be possible in California or other large states.

“I don't know if I can speak to whether or not we're a perfect cross-section of the country, but I think we have a pretty good representation of conservatives, liberals, Democrats, Republicans, both sides,” Andrew said. Stephenson, a manufacturing engineer and undecided voter, after watching Florida Governor Ron DeSantis court voters at Jethro's BBQ in Ames.

Voters gather to hear Haley speak. Iowa's voting population is overwhelmingly white.

(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)

“I mean, it has to be somewhere, right?” the 42-year-old added, noting that Iowans have an expectation to meet and vet candidates in person rather than through expensive television ads, the primary campaign method in large states like California. “I don't know who would be better or more appropriate.”

The Iowa race became a testing ground for presidential candidates in the 1970s. Other states have questioned Iowa's outsize role for years, but were rebuffed on the grounds that any candidate willing to put in the time and effort to meet with Iowans might have a chance there, due to the intimate nature of the caucuses.

Similarly, simmering concerns about the state's residents being unrepresentative of the demographics and direction of the nation never came to a full boil, until state Democrats so unnerved the 2020 caucus that they were not allowed to vote. declared no formal winner. National Democrats made South Carolina the first official state in their party's nominating contest this year, though critics say the change had more to do with President Biden's lackluster results in Iowa and New Hampshire, which he celebrates. the first primaries in the country.

Many Iowa stalwarts argue that the state's role is justified because it creates a level playing field for candidates, regardless of their financial resources, and because voters expect to be able to question presidential hopefuls.

“Iowans take this very seriously. They really want to get to know the candidates. It’s retail politics,” said Terry Branstad, President Trump’s former ambassador to China and several-term governor of Iowa.

He also argued that Obama, with his surprise victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2008 caucuses, would never have become president if the race had started in a big state like California.

“Clinton's money and connections would have dominated, and that wouldn't have happened,” Branstad said. “That's the problem in those states: very rarely do people get to meet with the candidates, while, like in Iowa, they often meet with them several times. So I think that's important.”

Some Californians agree.

Jon Hathaway joins other Haley fans at the event.

(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)

“The argument for Iowa is that the barrier to entry is low, so it favors any candidate who wants to come in and work,” said Republican strategist Rob Stutzman. “Whereas if it started in a state like California, only a rich candidate would be favored.

“It is a nation-state. It will always favor the wealthiest candidate,” added Stutzman, who advised former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger as well as billionaire Meg Whitman in her 2010 gubernatorial bid. “There are too many media markets, it's too big a state to move efficiently without spending a lot of money on private jets.

That said, Stutzman believes Iowa's lack of diversity and agriculture-driven economy is “not ideal.” California could be more relevant if it plays an early role in the nominating process, as it does this year, when it is among more than a dozen states that will vote on March 5, Super Tuesday.

“So there are pros and cons,” he said, before recalling observing previous meetings in Iowa. “It's a good tradition. Voters there take it seriously. “I’ll miss it if it doesn’t happen again.”