The global good streak continues: February was the warmest ever recorded

The planet has experienced its ninth consecutive month of record-breaking heat, with a scalding February completing the warmest meteorological winter on record in the Northern Hemisphere, international climate officials announced this week.

The global surface temperature in February was 56.4 degrees, about 0.2 degrees warmer than the previous February record set in 2016, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service.

“February adds to the long streak of records in recent months,” reads a statement from Carlo Buontempo, director of the agency. “As notable as this may seem, it is actually not surprising, as continued warming of the climate system inevitably leads to new extreme temperatures.”

Much of the planet's heat has been attributed to human-caused climate change, as fossil fuel emissions continue to trap heat that warms the planet.

“The climate responds to the actual concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, so unless we manage to stabilize them, we will inevitably face new global temperature records and their consequences,” Buontempo said.

But experts say El Niño, a weather pattern in the tropical Pacific associated with warmer global temperatures, has also played a role in the recent heat.

“It's not at all unexpected that we're having a very warm February shortly after the peak of El Niño conditions,” said Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at the nonprofit Berkeley Earth. He noted that historically the strongest influence of El Niño comes about two to three months after its peak.

The latest El Niño advisory from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicates that El Niño has been weakening since early January, and there is a 55% chance that its colder counterpart, La Niña, will develop later this year.

Regardless of the influence of El Niño, February was exceptionally warm.

According to Copernicus, the month was about 3.2 degrees warmer than the estimated February average for the period 1850 to 1900, the designated pre-industrial period by which global warming is measured. That's notably higher than the 2.7 degree limit set under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, an internationally recognized benchmark for limiting the worst effects of climate change, often referred to as 1.5. Celsius degrees.

The global average temperature for the past 12 months (March 2023 to February) was the highest on record, 2.8 degrees (1.56°C) above the pre-industrial average, Copernicus said.

What's more, the daily global temperature was exceptionally high during the first half of February, rising about 3.6 degrees above pre-industrial levels for four consecutive days, from February 8 to 11.

However, a single day, month or year of temperatures above the 2.7 degree limit does not mean the planet has surpassed the Paris agreement, Hausfather said. Guidelines set by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change call for about two decades of heat above that limit, and there are still likely to be some years that fall below it due to natural variability and other factors.

“We have not yet passed 1.5 [degrees Celsius] However, even though we are getting dangerously close,” he said. “And to be honest, the ship of the global economy, so to speak, is turning so slowly in terms of fossil fuel replacement that it's almost a foregone conclusion that we're going to go above 1.5 degrees at this point, even if we don't. we do formally. approve it until the early 2030s.”

Although global temperatures are likely to fluctuate in the coming years, the general trend is clear.

“Every month since June 2023 has set a new monthly temperature record, and 2023 was by far the warmest year on record. “El Niño has contributed to these record temperatures, but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit,” Celeste Saulo, secretary general of the World Meteorological Organization, said in a report this week.

The planet's oceans also continue to experience runaway heat, with February marking not only the warmest February on record for sea surface temperatures, but also the highest for any month in the data set, according to Copernicus. The global average sea surface temperature last month was 69.9 degrees.

Copernicus also noted that Arctic sea ice extent in February was about 2% below average, which is not as low as in more recent years but is “well below the values ​​observed in the 1980s.” and 1990.”

Antarctic sea ice hit its annual low last month, 28% below average, the third lowest on record in satellite data and not far from the record low set in February 2023.

The causes of the planet's record warming remain an active area of ​​scientific research, Hausfather said, with about 2.3 degrees (or 1.3 degrees Celsius) of warming likely due to human-driven changes.

And while El Niño is believed to have played some role in the recent high temperatures, there are other potential variables, including the 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga volcano, which shot record amounts of heat-trapping water vapor into the atmosphere.

Some researchers have also noted that recent changes in shipping regulations eliminated some heat-reflecting atmospheric aerosols from reaching the planet. A recent spike in the 11-year solar cycle may also have contributed about a tenth of a degree to the warming, Hausfather said.

But of course, “this is all based on the 1.3 degrees [Celsius] More or less that is due to human activity,” he added.

However, extreme temperatures were not recorded everywhere on Earth in February.

While much of the Northern Hemisphere, including the United States, experienced the warmest meteorological winter on record, parts of Southern California and Los Angeles recorded temperatures below their historical average, according to an AccuWeather report. The state ended the month with a major winter snowstorm that dumped up to 10 feet of snow in parts of the Sierra Nevada.

NOAA is expected to release official February data for the US later this month. The agency's latest seasonal temperature forecast indicates that March, April and May will be warmer than average across much of the northern U.S., including northern and central California.

If La Niña were to develop later this year as predicted, it could lead to colder global temperatures in the latter part of the year, but will most likely have the greatest influence in 2025, Hausfather said.

As things stand, the start of this year means 2024 will likely be another one for the record books.

“Without a doubt, 2024 will be an exceptionally warm year,” he said. “It may not surpass 2023, but if it doesn't, it will be the second warmest year on record.”