Immigration and border security issues unify Republican voters while dividing Democratic voters in California, according to a state poll.
The findings of the new UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies Surveyco-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, illustrate some of the political difficulties President Biden faces in dealing with the large number of unauthorized immigrants crossing the southern border of the United States.
Even in California, a Democratic stronghold, between 62% and 30% of registered voters say the U.S. borders are not secure to prevent people from entering the country illegally, according to the poll. The majority who say the border is not secure is even larger among likely voters.
Voters who support former President Trump, are conservative or identify as Republicans are nearly unanimous in saying the border is not secure. Among strongly conservative voters, 88% say the border is not secure, compared to 8% who say it is.
Democrats, liberals and voters who support Biden are more evenly divided. Among California voters who identify as strongly liberal, 54% say the border is secure; 30% say no.
Democrats are also divided on the question of whether unauthorized immigrants pose a burden to the country. Overall, 42% of registered voters say immigrants are a “major burden,” 30% say they are a “minor burden,” and 22% say they are not a burden, according to the survey.
“The findings show that immigration is not clear-cut even in California, whose reputation as a sanctuary state often influences discussion on the issue,” said G. Cristina Mora, co-director of the Institute for Governmental Studies.
The split among Democrats could signal trouble for Biden in the 2024 election campaign, although more so in other states than California, said Mark DiCamillo, the poll's director. “The probabilities of a [Republican] The expenses incurred by the State are very long,” he stated.
In California, the effect is more likely to occur in competitive congressional elections, which could help determine the House majority. Those include the race to fill the seat of Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine), who is running for the U.S. Senate, as well as competitive districts in northern Los Angeles County and the Central Valley. Republican candidates in those districts could focus immigration issues as part of their platforms, DiCamillo said.
“This issue could favor Republicans,” he said.
As the number of unauthorized migrants crossing the border has increased, Biden has been criticized by Republicans, who call his border policies weak, but also by some fellow Democrats.
The Democratic mayors of New York and Chicago, among other big cities, have said services are collapsing in the face of a steady surge of immigrants and have criticized the federal government for its handling of the problem.
In Congress, Republicans have been insisting that Biden accept major changes to immigration policy, especially regarding immigrants' legal right to seek asylum in the United States. In the Senate, Republicans have insisted on a border deal as the price for voting in favor of shipping. additional aid to Ukraine, a high priority for Biden.
Unauthorized migration across the US southern border reached record levels in fiscal year 2023, which ended in September. exceeding 2 million for the second consecutive year.
Many of the migrants arriving at the southern border seek asylum, alleging persecution in their home countries. But the problem doesn't end at the border: Thousands of daily arrivals have overwhelmed an aging immigration system and created a backlog of asylum cases. Asylum seekers who are released into the United States and given a court date wait years, if not a decade, to appear before a judge.
Biden has indicated a willingness to accept at least some of the Republican demands, angering some Democrats and immigration advocates.
However, reaching a deal remains an uphill battle, and the poll shows how the issue is consolidating the Republican voting bloc while dividing Democrats.
The poll found that voters are divided over their view of the country's asylum laws. Republican voters, conservative voters and voters who support Trump agree that the laws are too lenient.
Democrats, meanwhile, are divided: 17% say the law is too lenient, 29% say it's about right and 33% say it's too restrictive. However, among those who identify as strongly liberal, a majority, 56%, say the law is too restrictive, and 6% consider it too lenient, while 24% say it is about right.
Opinions on asylum laws do not vary much by race or ethnicity, the survey found.
The survey also found widespread skepticism that the new laws would be effective in reducing the number of immigrants arriving at the border: 45% of voters think the new laws would be effective; 42% say they would not do it. Liberal voters are much more likely than conservatives to say the new laws would not be effective.
Immigrants are more likely than native-born voters to say the new laws would have an impact: 53% of California voters who were born in another country say they would be effective, while 32% say they would not. Native voters are evenly divided on that issue.
The Berkeley IGS poll was conducted online Jan. 4-8 among a random sample of 8,199 registered California voters, including a weighted subsample of 4,470 voters likely to participate in the March 5 primary.
The results were weighted to match census and voter registration benchmarks, so margin of error estimates may be imprecise. The results have an estimated margin of error of 1.5 percentage points in either direction for the full sample.
