Wishful thinkers from both parties, as well as pundits, have reflected on Thursday's State of the Union address in which President Biden stares calmly into television cameras and closes with an LBJ-type surprise: an announcement that will not seek or accept his party's nomination for a second term.
That won't happen and it shouldn't happen. In reality, the way you look at Biden's speech is like the antithesis of Lyndon B. Johnson's speech. speech about Vietnam with its surprise ending, on another March night more than half a century ago, in the midst of the tumult of 1968. The current president is writing a very different ending to his term.
opinion columnist
Jackie Calmes
Jackie Calmes brings a critical look to the national political scene. He has decades of experience covering the White House and Congress.
Biden, unlike the embattled Johnson, will not be pressured to withdraw. He is stubbornly clinging to the conviction that, to borrow the bluster of his rival, only he can do it: beat Donald Trump, that is. (Forget that Biden once joked about that “probably 50” The Democrats could win.) And he deserves the chance to prove it, his age be damned.
Maybe it's selfish, as some Democrats privately murmur. I also have my doubts. I wish I was younger. But he is not, he runs and won a second term.
“The biggest surprise is that it leaves no room for doubt,” Biden biographer Evan Osnos. wrote this week in the New Yorker, after interviewing him for the first time since 2020.
That version of Biden (determined, firm and self-confident) can be attractive, and he also looks less old. Recall last year's speech, when she joked from the House pulpit as strident Republicans unknowingly became their florets, booing “Liar!” repeatedly.
The president's great challenge, however, is not only to maintain an attractive personality for more than an hour, in front of one of the largest audiences he will have all year. The content of the speech should explain why he should get another four years and why he is not living up to his 2020 speech of being a transitional president, passing the torch after a good career to a younger Democrat.
Biden must do more than simply recount his considerable accomplishments, a legacy that rivals Johnson's, although Biden does not have the large Democratic majorities in Congress that LBJ enjoyed. The president must be animated: look alive! – But even more, his message should encourage voters. He must make them want to stay with old Joe.
So far, Biden has not delivered that message. Since 2020 it has oscillated between themes: restoring the soul of the nation after Trump, protecting democracy, reviving the economy and the middle class after a pandemic-era recession, restoring America's alliances, and countering subsequent attacks Dobbs to reproductive rights. You need an all-encompassing, forward-thinking theme. It doesn't have to be as simplistic as “MAGA,” but something that fits on a bumper sticker would be nice.
This year's State of the Union address is his chance for a reset, in prime time. Biden must tell a story that showcases his accomplishments, draws a clear contrast to Trump's dark, dictatorial vision, and gives his younger, better-spoken Democratic replacements something to echo every day, all day, from now through November. .
“You campaign in poetry; “it is governed in prose,” said Mario Cuomo. saying. Biden has the government part down. But when it comes to the important performative part of the presidency, he is not poetic. (Get the replacements, quick!)
The stakes for Biden were underscored by a series of polls in the past week showing him trailing Trump in a matchup and in voter perceptions. Her job approval rating remains stuck in the 30s, the lowest at this stage of a presidency since Jimmy Carter. Democrats at their hearing Thursday will be a panicked bunch, desperate for assurance about both the man and his message.
A New York Times/Siena College survey showed that nearly three-quarters of registered voters agreed “strongly” or “somewhat” that Biden, 81, is too old to be an effective president, compared to 42% who said the same about Trump, 77. years. An AP/NORC survey found that about six in 10 adults said both Biden and Trump lack the mental capacity to be president. But among independents, who can decide the election, 80% expressed doubts about Biden's abilities, compared with 56% who did so about the unhinged Trump.
Nearly six in 10 adults said the economy is worse than when Biden took office, even though it clearly is not. as metrics and economists attest. What matters, however, is voter perception, whether about the economy, the ages of the candidates, or anything else. And the risk for Biden is that his performance at the State of the Union could reinforce negative impressions about him just as easily as he could dispel them.
The only thing that is certain is that Biden will not pull an LBJ and retire.
Both he and Johnson came from difficult backgrounds, honed their political skills in the Senate and the vice presidency, realized their lifelong ambition to be president, and believed they did the job better than anyone. That certainty did not last long for Johnson, as the war abroad and conflicts in the streets took their political toll. But it endures for Biden and keeps him in the race, as Osnos's article in the New Yorker captured.
Osnos wrote: “I asked Biden if he ever doubted he would run again. 'No,' he said.” And Biden offered to say this: “I would ask a rhetorical question: If you thought you were in the best position to defeat someone who, if they won, would change the nature of America, what would you do?”
If only the rest of us Trump-phobes could be so confident that Biden is actually “better positioned to defeat” the former president, failed insurrectionist, and current criminal defendant. But trust is too much to ask; I will settle for some reassurance in this State of the Union about the state of Joe Biden.
