Medan, Indonesia – Indonesia’s future capital, Nusantara, is set to open on Saturday, the country’s Independence Day, as the country looks to replace Jakarta, which has served as its capital since Indonesia declared independence from the Dutch in 1945.
Jakarta, a bustling metropolis of at least 11 million people, suffers from some of the world's worst traffic jams, thick smog and overcrowding.
It is also reported to be sinking due to unregulated groundwater extraction, and Indonesia's National Research and Innovation Agency has warned that by 2050, about 25 percent of the city could be submerged.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, first announced his shock plan to move the capital to the jungles of East Kalimantan on the Indonesian part of the island of Borneo during his annual address to the nation on August 16, 2019.
“A capital is not only a symbol of national identity, but also a representation of the nation’s progress,” Jokowi said. “This is to realize economic equality and justice.”
But some have questioned the grandiose project, known as Ibu Kota Negara or IKN, from the start.
Ian Wilson, a professor of politics and security studies at Australia's Murdoch University, told Al Jazeera the project reflected the defining characteristics of Jokowi's administration.
“First, an increasingly autocratic government divorced from popular sovereignty, considering that IKN will be physically distant from the vibrant civil society that has been fundamental to the democratic consolidation of the country,” he said.
“It will disentangle the nation’s executive from the complexities and contradictions of Jakarta, which mirror those of the country, as well as from expressions of sovereignty and popular agency, such as demonstrations, protests and mobilizations, which have been important forms of checks and balances on power.”
The power of the people
The government plans to relocate a total of 20,000 civil servants from Jakarta to Nusantara. An initial group of 12,000 employees from 38 government ministries is expected to make the move by the end of December 2024.
To accommodate all the new staff, some 47 apartment towers are being built, 12 of which were completed last month.
If all goes according to plan, it is estimated that by 2045 there will be about 1.9 million people living in Nusantara, more than the population of Samarinda, the provincial capital of East Kalimantan.
Siwage Dharma Negara, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, told Al Jazeera that the premise of Nusantara was “a long-term project to address disparities and development challenges in Jakarta”.
Time has always been the main concern, he noted.
“The government has argued that if not now, when? If it is postponed, it may never happen,” he said. “For those who disagree, the timing is seen as inappropriate because the economy is not doing well, so it depends on which side of the spectrum you look at it from.”
Nusantara needs a lot of money: $35 billion, according to the government.
The World Bank said in June that it expected From Indonesia Growth is expected to remain resilient despite rising prices and geopolitical uncertainty, with gross domestic product expanding at an average of 5.1 percent annually between 2024 and 2026.
But Ega Kurnia Yazid, an economist and subsidy policy specialist at the Indonesian National Team for Poverty Reduction Acceleration (TNP2K), is cautious.
It points to recent declines in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) – a measure of economic trends in the manufacturing sector – over the past two months to a level below 50, indicating a contraction and following declines in major economies such as the United States, China and Japan.
“These countries are From Indonesia major trading partners, and the decline in these countries’ PMI indicates a decline in international demand for Indonesian commodities,” he said.
Money matters
Between 2022 and 2024, Nusantara has been allocated $4.6 billion from the state budget, or about 14 percent of the total budget for the new capital.
By July 2024, investment in Nusantara had reached $6.2 billion, about 15 percent of the total estimated investment needed.
According to the government, it has received some 369 letters of intent from investors, most of them from Singapore.
More than 130 government officials and businessmen from the city-state visited Nusantara in May last year. Representatives from other countries, including Finland, Kazakhstan and Malaysia, also travelled to the site that month.
To date, two Singapore companies have signed agreements related to Nusantara, including Nusantara State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC) and JOE Green, both involved in renewable energy and waste management.
But Wilson said the reliance on foreign investment revealed the contradictions of new capital.
“The heavy reliance on foreign investment to build IKN, sold through generous conditions and waivers, has not only failed to materialise, but sharply contradicts the nationalist rhetoric underpinning the project: a national capital built with foreign money,” he said.
Five phases
Nusantara is expected to cover an area of 2,560 square kilometres (990 sq mi).
The project will be completed in five separate phases, with the first phase commencing in August 2022, and the entire project expected to be completed by 2045.
A planned toll road stretching 47 kilometres (29 mi) will be built to connect the central government area with the newly built Naratetama Airport and Balikpapan, the second largest city in East Kalimantan province.
According to the Indonesian government, the city is designed with sustainability in mind and 80 percent of trips will be made by public transport, bicycle or on foot.
The surrounding forest is said to be protected and the city will get all its energy from renewable sources. Around 10 percent of its surface area will be used for food production. It is also supposed to be carbon neutral by 2045.
But Arie Rompas of Greenpeace Indonesia is sceptical.
He describes environmental credentials as “just a claim”.
“On the contrary, the project will threaten natural forests and biodiversity at the IKN construction site and more broadly on the island of Kalimantan,” he said.
“The construction of the new capital will trigger migration and will also attract new investments, encourage deforestation and strengthen the extractive economy.”
Just two months before the opening, it was announced that Bambang Susantono, the head of the Nusantara Capital City Authority in charge of managing the project, along with his deputy, Dhony Rahajoe, had resigned.
When Jokowi was asked about the resignations while visiting Nusantara that same month, he said both had resigned for “personal reasons.”
Susantono had previously said that he and Rahajoe had to wait 11 months to receive their salaries for work on the project.
Jokowi remained optimistic despite his sudden departures.
Work on the first phase of the city was 80 percent complete, he said, and this week he summoned his cabinet for its first meeting inside the sprawling presidential palace, built to resemble a garuda. From Indonesia mythical bird.
He was later photographed walking along an empty six-lane highway in the city with Prabowo Subianto, the man who will be sworn in as From Indonesia next president at the end of October.
The fate of the next four phases of IKN, one of the largest infrastructure projects in Indonesian history, will be in their hands.
