Former President Trump cattle the first Republican primary Tuesday in New Hampshire against his closest competitor, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, according to an Associated Press projection. Although the result was expected, it was significant.
Here are some conclusions.
It's over
Yes, Haley is still in the race, for now. But Trump's victory in the first primary state, which has one of the most moderate and least pro-Trump electorates in the Republican Party, all but seals his party's nomination, setting up a long-awaited rematch with President Biden.
The not-very-competitive nomination race has highlighted the extent to which the Republican Party has become the party of Trump.
Trump left office with low approval ratings and two impeachments that followed an unprecedented attempt to overturn a legal election. But he entered the nomination fight with many of the advantages of an incumbent, then scored victories in both Iowa and New Hampshire, a rare feat for a Republican presidential hopeful.
The endorsements tell part of that story. They don't usually matter, but two recent nods from former opponents demonstrate why Trump has been the default choice all along. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and South Carolina Senator Tim Scott both stood behind Trump shortly after they abandoned the race.
Neither of them had much personal reason to embrace Trump. The former president relentlessly attacked DeSantis, who entered the race with high approval ratings, calling him “demoralizing” and mocking his appearance, among other insults. But both supported Trump for the same reason they refrained from attacking his vulnerabilities during the race: Republican voters still love him. The two believe that if they want to have a future in the party, at least in the short term, they should stay with Trump.
Is Haley dropping out of school when her home state looms?
Haley has repeatedly said she will not drop out of the race after New Hampshire, as she did again Tuesday night after the race was called for Trump.
“New Hampshire is first in the nation, not last in the nation. This race is far from over,” he told his followers.
Most candidates make similar statements until the moment they leave the race. Haley's underdog strategy depended on winning New Hampshire, which is filled with the highly educated Republican and independent voters Haley has been seeking.
The next race heads to Nevada and the Virgin Islands, where Republican caucuses will be held on February 8.
Polls show Haley trailing Trump by nearly 40 percentage points in her home state of South Carolina, which holds its Republican primary in February. 24. A great loss there would be detrimental to his prospects, though not fatal. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio won just 27% against Trump in his home state in 2016; Although he soon dropped out of the presidential race, he easily won reelection to his Senate seat that fall.
But many candidates, including Kamala Harris when she was a senator from California, are choosing to avoid the potential stain on their resume that would result from losing in their home state. They withdrew before votes were cast in the 2020 race. In Harris' case, it paid off with a vice presidential nomination, although Haley seems unlikely to get Trump's nod.
Supporters of Nikki Haley listen as the candidate speaks after her primary loss.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
Another historic moment for a twice-impeached president
Trump's victory on Tuesday, along with last week's caucuses victory in Iowamarked another historic moment: It was the first time he faced voters since leaving office, still refusing to accept the election results and encouraging an angry mob that stormed the Capitol.
He faces 91 criminal charges and has threatened, among other things, to rescind the Constitution and give himself dictatorial powers for a day, while claiming that presidents enjoy absolute immunity from prosecution, even for acts that “cross the line.”
The question is a dividing line for many voters. In a preliminary exit poll, 85% of Haley voters said Trump, if he is convicted of a crime, is unfit to be president. Only 11% of Trump voters said that.
Democrats hope voters will start comparing Biden to 'the alternative'
Biden has repeated for months the aphorism “Don't compare me to the Almighty, compare me to the alternative.” He maintains that his low approval rating (below 40%) will matter less once people focus on the binary choice between him and Trump.
That process is likely to intensify as Trump moves closer to securing the nomination. The big question is whether the election, now forecast as close, will swing in Biden's favor as voters take a closer look at Trump. Historically, Trump's approval rating in polls has declined as he gains more public exposure.
Turnout for a Trump-Biden rematch could decline
Voters turned out in large numbers in 2018, 2020 and, in some states, 2022, in part because Trump inspires very strong positive and negative feelings. Abortion also played an important role in 2022, following the Supreme Court's decision to overturn a constitutional right to the procedure.
Will that fervor persist in November, or are voters too tired and uninspired for a likely rematch that has discouraged many? That is one of the most important questions and one that both parties will address now that the general elections are taking shape.
Biden needs to shore up support among younger and Black voters, key groups for him in 2020 whose enthusiasm has waned, polls show. Trump needs to minimize losses in the suburbs, where educated Republican women have defected.
What about third parties? Will they fade away as usual or will they be a spoiler?
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has polled in double figures in some polls as an independent candidate. A centrist group called No Labels has been launching a third-party bid, although no one has signed up to run.
History shows that these candidacies tend to fade when voters cast their ballots. But they have had an impact, including in 1992, when Ross Perot won 19% of the vote. The debate continues over which of the two main candidates he hurt the most: Bill Clinton defeated George HW Bush with just 43% of the popular vote. In 2000, Ralph Nader may have tipped the balance in favor of George W. Bush in his race against Al Gore.
Conventional wisdom holds that Biden will be harmed by a third-party candidate because Trump's core base is so loyal. But that's not clear, especially in the case of Kennedy, whose conspiratorial views on vaccines and other issues coincide with those of many Trump supporters.
