Russia and Ukraine traded deadly airstrikes against civilian centers during the final week of the war, but Ukraine also hit military and economic infrastructure deep in Russia's heart, extending its reach to St. Petersburg for the first time.
Ukrainian military intelligence said it had attacked an unspecified military target in St. Petersburg on Thursday, using drones launched from Ukrainian soil.
Ukraine's Strategic Industries Minister Oleksandr Kamyshin confirmed the attack, telling the World Economic Forum in Davos that the attack was carried out by a Ukrainian-built drone that had traveled 1,250 kilometers (780 miles) from Ukrainian soil.
Russia's Defense Ministry said three drones had been launched and shot down over the Gulf of Finland that day, one of them near an oil terminal.
On Sunday, Ukraine struck again in several locations and this time the evidence of its success was clear.
Russian gas producer Novatek said it would suspend operations at a plant and cargo terminal at the port of Ust-Luga, near St. Petersburg, following a fire, which Ukrainian media attributed to a drone attack, citing sources from the Security Service (SBU).
Novatek said it had resumed loading on Wednesday, but it could take weeks or months for plant operations to return to normal, analysts said. This meant the company would lose money and export low-value gas condensate instead of processed naphtha, jet fuel and diesel.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said air defenses were being strengthened following the attack.
Ukraine also claimed to have attacked the Shcheglovsky Val plant in Tula, 150 kilometers (93 miles) south of Moscow, which allegedly manufactures the Pantsir-S and Pantsir-S1 air defense systems.
Geolocated images also showed smoke rising from the city of Smolensk, near the Russian border with Belarus, suggesting a possible third attack that day.
Ukraine has been developing its own long-range aerial and surface drones since at least the middle of last year, when it attacked several military targets in Crimea and the Black Sea.
Unlike donated Western weapons, they impose no restrictions on their use on Russian soil.
Secretary of the National Defense and Security Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov stated that Ukraine is among the top three drone manufacturers in the world.
Ukraine is suspected of being responsible for the bombing of the occupied eastern city of Donetsk, which killed at least 27 people on Sunday, although it did not claim responsibility for the attack.
Russia has systematically attacked Ukrainian cities and did so again with deadly results. Kharkiv suffered the greatest number of casualties.
Russian missiles killed 18 people and wounded about 130 in several cities on Tuesday, but eight of the dead were in Kharkiv, said its mayor, which suffered three waves of attacks. At least 100 high-rise buildings were hit in the city.
Ukraine defended its airspace from repeated attacks.
It shot down 19 of 20 Shahed drones last Wednesday, 22 of 33 drones on Thursday and four of seven drones on Saturday.
In each case, Russia also used a small number of missiles, as it has been doing for months, copying a Ukrainian tactic designed to overwhelm air defense systems.
A Pentagon official said these were probing attacks as Russia searched for weaknesses in defenses.
“Until now they have not achieved it. “The Ukrainians have a lot of experience in recent years in how to deal with these types of Russian attacks,” Celeste Wallander, deputy secretary of defense, told reporters.
What made Tuesday's attack different was that Russia did not use drones. It launched 44 missiles of various types, half of which were intercepted by Ukraine, most of them over kyiv.
No end in sight
Ukraine's Western allies continued to pledge arms and ammunition, predicting a third year of war, while defiant Russian rhetoric left little hope for negotiations any time soon.
“Ukraine's existence is mortally dangerous for Ukrainians,” Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia's powerful Security Council, wrote on the Telegram messaging app.
“The presence of an independent state in historical Russian territories will now be a constant reason for the resumption of hostilities,” he stated, clarifying an irredentist policy towards all of Ukraine.
“There is a 100 percent chance of a new conflict,” Medvedev said, even if Ukraine were to join the EU and NATO. “This could happen in ten or fifty years.”
Some in Europe took Russia at its word.
“We hear threats from the Kremlin almost every day… so we have to take into account that Vladimir Putin might even one day attack a NATO country,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told Tagesspiegel.
“Our experts expect a period of five to eight years in which this could be possible,” Pistorius said.
It was the latest in a series of ominous warnings. The head of NATO's military committee called for a “war transformation” of NATO two weeks ago.
And Sweden's commander in chief, who came a step closer to NATO membership when Turkey's parliament ratified his candidacy on Tuesday, last week told Swedes to prepare for war.
Even Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who last September said Russia was ready for talks, said Russia “will achieve the objectives of its 'special military operation' consistently and persistently.”
looking for ammunition
Consequently, Western governments have been increasing munitions production. Different estimates give Russia an advantage of between 5:1 and 10:1 in artillery shells.
There are concerns that the disparity could damage Ukraine's strong defense. Over the past week, for example, Ukraine retreated a few hundred meters into Kharkiv, where Russia has been relentlessly attacking the front lines.
European Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton said on Saturday that EU defense industries would be able to produce one million artillery shells a year by April, up to 1.4 million by the end of the year and more next year. comes.
Defense industries have complained that they cannot increase production unless governments provide long-term contracts, and on Tuesday NATO made up some of this shortfall with a $1.2 billion contract to two manufacturers for 200,000 rounds of artillery ammunition.
The NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) reached the agreement on behalf of allies who will deliver the projectiles to Ukraine or use them to replenish their own depleted inventories.
Poland on Monday became the latest EU member to sign a bilateral defense agreement with Ukraine by 2024, after Germany, Estonia and Latvia. Germany announced it would provide six Sea King helicopters to monitor coastal waters.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he expected a series of “strong” defense packages for Ukraine to be signed “on specific dates” this month and next.
These bilateral deals have ignored Hungary's veto of a four-year, €50 billion EU financial support plan for Ukraine, and a €20 billion defense support plan this year that would reimburse members for some of your donations.
European lawmakers also moved to strip Hungary of its EU voting rights last Thursday. [January 18] when they asked the European Council of government leaders to investigate whether Hungary had “committed serious and persistent violations of EU values.” Suspending a member's vote is possible under Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union, but has never been invoked before.
