WASHINGTON- More than 60 days into his war with Iran, long after the public deadlines he had set for its end, President Trump attended a US Central Command briefing that outlined another set of options for a new round of strikes.
Unpalatable options were offered Thursday for a president eager to put the conflict he started behind him. The new US attacks risk inflaming the war beyond Trump's control, undermining a fragile ceasefire that US allies fought hard for. But the very need for such a briefing underscored just how difficult a position the president finds himself in.
A legal deadline for congressional authorization arrived Friday that threatens to increase pressure on the administration and underscore lagging support for the most unpopular American war in modern times. Global oil prices remain above $100 a barrel as the midterm election season begins. And it does not seem that any diplomatic progress with Tehran is in sight.
Signs pointed to another US military buildup in the region this week that could herald a new round of fighting. A U.S. defense official familiar with the matter said the U.S. military has taken advantage of the weeks-long pause to replenish its ammunition. So have the Iranians, who have reportedly increased their efforts to unearth stockpiles of missiles and drones buried by US and Israeli strikes.
“Amateurs look at strategy; professionals look at logistics,” said Robert Pape, a professor of international relations at the University of Chicago. “I've seen more force buildup (actual firepower, with the addition of a third carrier and logistics) than we've seen since the start of the war in February. So there's been a noticeable change in the last week.”
The logistical surge appears to be a flow of Boeing C-17 military transport aircraft heading to the region, along with the addition of a third aircraft carrier. Only two aircraft carriers were in place when Trump first launched the war on February 28.
“It's a very good sign that they are mobilizing,” Pape added. “These are strategic and operational indicators. I imagine they are looking for a strong hit.”
More than 10,000 Marines from expeditionary units are now in theater, giving Trump the option of launching limited land operations, such as seizing a small stretch of coastline or launching an assault on Kharg Island, the center of Iran's oil industry.
Occupying Iranian territory could give the Trump administration leverage in negotiations with Tehran. But it would also entail significant internal political risks. A clear majority of Americans (including many Republicans) oppose a ground war.
More troops would be needed to hold the ground for a considerable period of time, experts said.
“It is my impression, from some of the reports I have received, as well as from other sources, that an imminent military attack is on the table,” Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., told CNN.
Leaving Washington over the weekend, Trump told reporters that a “very disjointed” Iranian government, internally divided over whether to accept a nuclear deal with the Americans, had put his administration “in a bad position,” not knowing who to negotiate with or whether any deal it might reach would be implemented.
“Right now we have negotiations going on. They're not getting to that point,” Trump said. “They want to make a deal, but I'm not happy with it. So we'll see what happens.”
And yet, the longer the talks drag on, the more pain Americans can expect to feel as global energy and fertilizer prices continue to skyrocket due to the disruption of commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, affecting the costs of pocket items ranging from food and fuel to airfare.
Trump hopes a brief new round of powerful strikes, potentially targeting Iranian infrastructure, will force Iran's hardliners to support a negotiated settlement, a tactic that could backfire after an opening barrage of strikes in the war wiped out moderate voices in the government, empowering the militant leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
“Do we want to go and just destroy them and wipe them out forever, or do we want to try to make a deal?” Trump asked, speaking to reporters on the South Lawn. “I mean, those are the options.”
In a letter to Congress, Trump dismissed a 60-day deadline for congressional authorization for war set in the War Powers Act, claiming that the ceasefire with Iran had effectively stopped the clock on the administration's legal responsibilities. Democrats argue that the current US blockade of Iranian ports constitutes an act of war that, in the absence of a formal diplomatic agreement, requires congressional approval.
Speaking to reporters, Trump offered a less nuanced explanation.
“It's never been used, it's never been followed,” Trump said of the law. “Every other president considered it totally unconstitutional and we agree with that.”
The internal debate over resuming the war comes after Pentagon officials reported to Congress this week that the conflict, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, had cost taxpayers $25 billion so far.
Pete Hegseth, the president's defense secretary, defended the effort at a congressional hearing Wednesday, telling lawmakers that the United States was “absolutely” winning the war.
“Militarily,” Hegseth said, “on the battlefield, it has been an amazing military success.”
He declined to say whether he had advised the president to launch the war in the first place.
