Washington – Last week, President Trump abruptly pushed the United States foreign policy of one of his cornerstones.
For almost 80 years since the end of World War II, the United States fed a military alliance with the democracies of Europe, mainly to deter Russia's aggression from next door.
The support of the Biden Administration to Ukraine after Russia's complete invasion in 2022 was only the most recent consequence of that principle. The United States and its allies invested help in Ukraine not for sentimental reasons, but because they believed it was of interest.
Last week, in the diplomatic equivalent of an earthquake, President Trump and his lieutenants moved away from Ukraine, and also from the underlying principles.
“In the midst of a global struggle between Western liberal democracy and the authoritarian government … the United States has just changed side,” wrote Stanford Democracy Francis Fukuyama.
Does it sound exaggerated? Consider the evidence:
Trump praised the Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has prohibited dissent and is believed to order the murder of prominent opponents, stating that “he wants peace.” Meanwhile, Trump made fun of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as “a modestly successful comedian” and a “dictator.”
Even more strangely, Trump accused Zelensky to blame the war, saying “you should never have begun.” (It was, of course, Putin who invaded Ukraine, not vice versa). It sounded like a new Trumpian lie, an invented story to justify the lining with Putin.
The Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, announced a list of US concessions. He seized. He also warned that the United States could completely withdraw from Europe.
Vice President JD Vance gave Europeans a conference on his internal policy, telling them that the greatest danger to their security is not Russia, but immigration.
The Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and exalted “the incredible opportunities that exist to associate with the Russians,” including commercial companies that would require relaxing the economic sanctions of the United States.
And the Treasury Secretary, Scott Besent, presented to Zelensky a Trump demand that he pays the United States $ 500 billion, more than twice the amount of help that the United States has provided and provides US companies access preferential to lithium and other strategic minerals. It was not clear what, in any case, Ukraine would get in return, but apparently I would not include what Zelensky wants more: a US security guarantee against future Russian invasions.
It is not surprising that Zelensky rejected the offer. Trump, who apparently forgot what it is to negotiate real estate agreements, exploded on social networks: “Zelensky is better to move fast or will not have a country left.”
Everything joined a great week for Putin.
“If you had told me only three months ago that these were the words of the president of the United States, I would have laughed out loud,” wrote former president of Putin and former President Dmitry Medvedev in X about the attacks on Zelensky. “Trump is 200 percent correct.”
The question now is if there is something that Trump did not grant to Putin, and if there is something that would do to guarantee the independence of Ukraine.
A simple high fire will not be enough. For Putin, seeking control over Ukraine was not a momentary impulse; It is the work of your life. He has already proclaimed the annexation of Crimea and four Ukrainian regions. He has never hidden his ambition to absorb the rest of Ukraine, or at least turn it into a Russian satellite.
If 80% not conquered Ukraine will remain independent against the pressure of its powerful neighbor, it will need help from the countries of the United States and Europe.
But Trump has never supported a long -term commitment to the defense of Ukraine.
“What I think is more surprising … is how little the administration has said on providing support to Ukraine,” said Russia Stephen Sestannovich.
“His approach is very at the end of the struggle, with the possible involvement that they see that as the end of American participation,” said Sestovich, a member of the Foreign Affairs Council. “They have not really thought about what will be needed to obtain an agreement that lasts.”
Trump campaigned to finish the war and said he intended to act as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia, but so far it sounds more like the Wingman of Putin.
That should not be a surprise. Trump has long expressed the admiration for Putin, although, or perhaps because, he is a brutal dictator.
Putin's conversation points of Ukraine often repeat; He has been summoned by saying that Ukraine is not “a real country.”
And he has noticed a lot of resentment against the Zelensky democratically chosen for rejecting his demands to publicly investigate the Ukrainian businesses of Joe Biden and his family before the 2020 elections in the United States. That episode, in which Trump blocked $ 400 million in promised military aid for Ukraine, led to his first political trial, in 2019.
All these factors have persuaded Charles Kupchan, another scholar of the Foreign Relations Council, that a lasting peace agreement is unlikely.
“I am skeptical that they obtain a peace agreement,” he said. “I think we could get a stop the fire, which leads to a frozen conflict.”
And that would give Putin at least half of a victory. It would maintain the Ukrainian territory that has already conquered. He could continue his efforts to increase Russian influence on a weakened Ukraine. And I could seek relief relief from the United States, opening the way to deal with US companies.
The lesson for other democracies in danger of extinction: the Baltic states, threatened by Russia; Taiwan, threatened by China; South Korea, threatened by North Korea, would be that it cannot count on the United States to support it.
At least not if the president of the United States admires the strong man next door.
