The killing on Wednesday of Hamas' top leader, Ismail Haniyeh, is likely to derail urgent U.S.-led talks to halt the fighting in Gaza and open the door to a potentially fierce response from Iran.
In an airstrike blamed on Israel, Haniyeh was killed in Tehran during the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Israel has not claimed responsibility, but few entities have the military capability to carry out what was apparently a deadly, precisely targeted attack.
The timing of the killing frustrated the Biden administration, which has invested heavily in ceasefire talks aimed at at least temporarily ending the nearly 10-month-old war between Israel and Hamas.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was in Washington last week. Both President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris separately stressed to him the vital importance of agreeing to a ceasefire.
For months, the United States, Qatar and Egypt have been engaged in tense and arduous negotiations with Israel and Hamas over a deal that would halt the fighting and free hostages still held by Hamas.
The hostages were captured in the Oct. 7 Hamas-led assault on southern Israel that killed nearly 1,200 people and sparked the current conflict. Nearly 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel's retaliatory attacks on Gaza, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, which makes no distinction between combatants and civilians. The fighting has sparked a massive humanitarian crisis.
Haniyeh, who was exiled in Qatar and headed Hamas's political wing, was key in the ceasefire negotiations and the group's main international interlocutor.
He was the Hamas figure who sat down with Qatari negotiators to receive Israel's latest proposals and counterproposals and then relayed them to the top decision-maker, Yahya Sinwar, head of Hamas's military wing who is believed to be hiding in tunnels deep beneath the Gaza Strip. Haniyeh would then relay Sinwar's response to the negotiators.
According to negotiators, both the Israeli side and Hamas have put up obstacles to prevent a final agreement. Hamas has wanted an agreement on a permanent ceasefire, while Israel has wanted to reserve the right to resume bombing.
On Wednesday, U.S. officials were urgently trying to prevent the talks from collapsing entirely. Although a short-term suspension seems all but certain, U.S. officials said they believe the talks will resume at some point, especially since there are lower-level leaders in Hamas who want a cease-fire despite Sinwar's resistance.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken spent much of the day in brief but direct phone calls with Arab allies, particularly the Qataris, in an effort to get the talks back on track. The Qataris have not yet threatened to end their role as mediators but expressed displeasure over Haniyeh’s killing.
“Political assassinations and continued attacks on civilians in Gaza as talks continue beg the question: How can mediation succeed when one side kills the other side’s negotiator?” Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani said on social media platform X. “Peace needs serious partners and a global stance against disregard for human life.”
Blinken said the United States had no role in or prior knowledge of the killing.
However, Netanyahu has long promised to wipe out Hamas.
“Israel is trying to demonstrate to its own people that it is open season on Hamas leaders,” said Daniel Byman, a veteran Middle East researcher and fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Pointing to the killing of senior officials is a way of saying, ‘We are winning.’”
But experts say “winning” against Hamas is a difficult goal to achieve. And Hamas leaders were quick to say Wednesday that no amount of killing will stop their fight against Israel.
“Hamas and the resistance follow a clear strategy, which was established through multiple institutions,” senior Hamas official Khalil al-Hayya said at a press conference after the killing. “It will not be erased by martyrdom or the death of one leader or ten leaders. Whoever carries the flag after Commander Ismail Haniyeh will follow the same path.”
The fact that the killing took place in Tehran, hours after an opening ceremony with some 110 foreign delegates amid heightened security, infuriated Iranian officials.
“The criminal and terrorist Zionist regime has martyred our beloved guest on our soil and has caused our pain, but it has also prepared the ground for severe punishment,” Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in response on Wednesday.
“Following this bitter and tragic event that occurred within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.”
Regional tensions were further exacerbated when Israel launched a drone strike on Tuesday targeting a senior Hezbollah commander in a residential building in Beirut, killing seven people (including two women and two children) and wounding 78 others, Lebanese officials said.
The attack, which left a building half-destroyed in a Hezbollah-dominated neighbourhood in a suburb of the Lebanese capital, may constitute a red line for Hezbollah. The group has threatened to bomb Israeli cities if Israel attacks Lebanese towns.
Rising cross-border violence has raised fears that the Gaza conflict could spark a wider war in the Middle East.
In Israel, the reaction was mixed. While there was little outrage over the killing of one of Hamas's political leaders, many braced themselves for the consequences of retaliation. There was particular anxiety among the families of the hostages, who questioned Israel's timing of the attack and feared that another possible door to freedom had now been closed for their relatives.
Longtime observers of Israeli politics blame Netanyahu and other Israeli leaders for effectively boosting the profile of the radical Hamas over the more moderate Palestinian Authority and the Fatah party that leads it, both of which, unlike Hamas, recognized Israel's right to exist and advocated two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side.
The removal of Haniyeh put the more extremist Sinwar group “more at the center of gravity,” said Sarah Parkinson, a political scientist and professor of international studies at Johns Hopkins University.
“Murders can cause friction, confusion and competition. [in the targeted group]“but they can also serve as a way to elevate more extreme adversaries,” he said.
Wilkinson reported from Washington and Bulos from Beirut.
