According similar websites Head of CPG and Retail Advisory Services, EMEA, Varvara Blazhko, Data tracking the company's web traffic to LVMH brand sites showed that physical retail sales have declined sharply, but the digital landscape appears less affected, while in some markets and categories, it is still expanding.
LVMH saw a drop of up to 70 percent in the Middle East amid the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, while digital traffic remained more resilient with minor drops and some growth. This gap reflects a change in consumer behavior, with e-commerce cushioning losses. However, weak sentiment, inflation fears and current tensions may delay the recovery and push brands to rethink their strategies.
Similarweb's analysis tracks the monthly and weekly web traffic of six LVMH fashion brand sites, including Louis Vuitton, Dior, Fendi, Celine, Givenchy and Marc Jacobs, and three other major brands, namely Sephora, TAG Heuer and Hublot. The data was tracked and analyzed specifically at the request of Fibre2Fashion.
Blazhko said online traffic to LVMH's fashion websites in the UAE only declined 7 percent year-on-year in March, while weekly visits declined slightly after February 28, rather than collapsing completely. He noted that Saudi Arabia, as Cabanis also highlighted, was more resilient and stood out as the most digitally robust market.
Separately, last week Cabanis said there had been a deterioration in foot traffic in its stores, mainly in the Middle East region, which represents 6 percent of LVMH's turnover. The initial drop in traffic once the war broke out was between 30 and 70 percent, with an average drop of 50 percent, according to LVMH's chief financial officer.
Traffic between the Middle East and the EU in view of a war
The Middle East is widely regarded as a global luxury hub and a key shopping destination for tourists. The region contributes significantly to the sales of major brands such as LVMH, Prada and Ralph Lauren.
Blazhko noted that February to March typically sees a strong seasonal increase across the Gulf. In 2025, fashion traffic increased by 36 percent in the United Arab Emirates, 67 percent in Saudi Arabia and 64 percent in Qatar.
But this year, the UAE's growth was negligible with a drop of 2.1 per cent, Qatar fell 13.2 per cent and Saudi Arabia, despite a slowdown, grew 22.8 per cent, making it the only Gulf market to maintain its seasonal momentum.
It noted that these changes of 38 to 77 percentage points are much steeper than the 13-point seasonal variation seen in Europe's top five markets, indicating that conflict is the primary cause. Last week, LVMH said the conflict in the Middle East also affected sales in Europe, causing them to fall to 3 percent.
LVMH's European market web traffic was also down, with a 19 per cent drop in March across the UK from a year earlier, while Italy was down 32 per cent, Germany fell 27 per cent and Blazhko noted that the Gulf's digital decline is milder than Europe's, despite being a conflict zone.
Blazhko highlighted that the European and Gulf trajectories are now diverging, as weekly fashion traffic in all five European markets recovered in early April relative to their March average: web traffic in Italy saw a 26.9 percent increase, traffic from Germany increased by 19.3 percent, Spain increased by 25.1 percent, France increased by 8.4 percent, and traffic from the United Kingdom increased by 3.6 percent, while the Emirates United Arab Emirates continued to decline.
“This suggests that Europe's weakness in March was largely cyclical, while the Gulf slowdown is conflict-driven and continuing,” Blazhko said.
“The actual impact on digital sales may be greater than year-over-year comparisons suggest. The gap between digital and physical performance remains significant, and LVMH's e-commerce setup appears to offer protection that traditional retail cannot match,” Blazhko said.
Neil Saunders, managing director of retail at Global Data, told Fibre2Fashion in an email interview that in many Western markets the consumer remains under considerable financial pressure.
“This has been exacerbated recently by rising gas prices and the uncertainty caused by the Iran conflict. Therefore, there has been a reduction in luxury, especially among middle-income consumers. LVMH has a very strong portfolio and is well managed, but is not immune to the cooling effect of the Iran situation,” Saunders added.
Will luxury recover?
This time last year, the entire world was grappling with the sudden increase in tariffs as US President Donald Trump implemented sweeping tariffs on the country's global trading partners, and luxury companies continued to experience a slowdown.
The luxury sector was betting on the Middle East while addressing China's growth concerns, but the war has disrupted the slow recovery that was taking place late last year, once again putting several luxury companies in a difficult situation.
“The conflict in the Middle East could disrupt the steady recovery that luxury goods makers had been anticipating this year,” he said. Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell. He added that while the direct impact of fewer wealthy shoppers visiting shopping malls in places like Dubai may be moderate, the bigger concern is the potential impact on overall consumer confidence amid inflation fears.
However, LVMH CFO Cabanis said that “what we haven't seen yet is repatriation, and what we know is that the wealth has not evaporated, so there will come a time when we will see that, probably elsewhere, and mitigate the impact, if the conflict continues.” The war affected LVMH's overall organic growth by 1 percent during the first quarter.
“If shoppers pause big-ticket purchases again, the expected recovery for companies like LVMH could be restricted,” Danni Hewson said. He added that while wealthy consumers could weather another cost-of-living crisis, the uncertainty stemming from global unrest could change behavior, leading luxury brands to reassess their prospects, especially if the conflict continues into the summer.
Cabanis, during last week's earnings call, said the Middle East was “a pretty profitable market” and that if the company is losing €1 in sales, it was probably losing a little more margin.
Data from Similarweb showed that LVMH fashion brands in the UAE experienced a 7.1 percent decline in web traffic in March, compared to a year earlier. Blazhko noted that the 7.1 percent was just a fraction of the 70 percent drop in physical retail, Cabanis cited.
According to the data, there was no pronounced drop after February 28 and weekly visits to louisvuitton.com ranged between 26,000 and 34,000 in March, compared to 32,000 to 36,000 in February.
Blazhko noted that for the UAE, April's trajectory showed that overall weekly averages for fashion brands fell further, almost registering a 26 percent decline, and the week of April 13-18 saw nearly 31,000 website visits and was the lowest in Similarweb's data set, with no signs of recovery yet in the region.
Similarweb analyzed web traffic from Saudi Arabia and showed a 49.5 percent increase in March from a year ago, and traffic from Qatar saw a 10.8 percent decrease. Similarweb data shows total web traffic (on desktop and mobile) for the United Arab Emirates and Europe, while desktop data is only available for Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
The company noted that for Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the desktop figures represent a directional signal but underestimate total digital activity, and smaller domains in these markets carry more volatility.
“The gap between physical and digital performance raises the question of whether e-commerce is partially compensating for lost traffic or whether they represent fundamentally different customer segments,” Blazhko concluded.
Fibre2Fashion (AMR) News Desk
