World Cup 2026 group scenarios: What the remaining teams need to advance to the round of 32


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The group stage of the World Cup can get complicated quickly.

With 48 teams participating for the first time, FIFA instituted new tiebreaker rules to determine the top two in each group along with the eight best third places.

Below, FOX Sports Research has broken down what each team needs to advance, what results would allow them to advance, and what scenarios could leave their destiny at stake.

Here's where each group stands heading into the next round of matches and the simple scenarios for advancing.

Note: The following scenarios correspond to all games played on June 25. Additionally, three points is now the minimum required for teams to advance as one of the eight third-place teams.

GROUP A SCENARIOS

  • Mexico won the group and will face a third-place team from Group C or E in the round of 32 in Mexico City on June 30.
  • South Africa finished second in the group and will play Canada on June 28 in Los Angeles.
  • South Korea finished third and is currently ranked eighth among third-place teams.
  • Czechia cannot advance to the knockout phase.

Mexico celebrates after securing first place in the Group in the victory against South Korea.

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GROUP B SCENARIOS

  • Switzerland won the group and will play a third-place team from Group G or J in the round of 32 in Vancouver on July 2.
  • Canada finished second in the group and will play South Africa on June 28 in Los Angeles.
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina finished third and will play the United States in the round of 32 on July 1 in Santa Clara.
  • Qatar cannot advance to the knockout phase.

GROUP C SCENARIOS

  • Brazil won the group and will play Japan on June 29 in Houston.
  • Morocco finished second in the group and will play against the Netherlands on June 29 in Monterrey.
  • Scotland finished in third place and are currently 10th among third-place teams.
  • Haiti cannot advance to the knockout phase.

GROUP D SCENARIOS

  • The United States won the group and will play Bosnia and Herzegovina in the round of 32 on July 1 in Santa Clara.
  • Australia finished second in the group and will play Egypt on July 3 in Arlington.
  • Paraguay finished third and will play Germany on June 29 in Foxborough.
  • Türkiye cannot advance to the knockout stage.
Folarin Balogoun from USA

Folarin Balogoun from USA

GROUP E SCENARIOS

  • Germany won the group and will play Paraguay on June 29 in Foxborough.
  • Ivory Coast finished second in the group and will play Norway on June 30 in Arlington.
  • Ecuador finished in third place and secured a spot as a third-place team.
  • Curacao cannot advance to the knockout phase.

GROUP F SCENARIOS

  • The Netherlands won the group and will play Morocco on June 29 in Monterrey.
  • Japan finished second in the group and will play Brazil on June 29 in Houson.
  • Sweden finished third and will play France on June 30 in East Rutherford.
  • Tunisia cannot advance to the knockout phase.

GROUP G SCENARIOS

  • Belgium won the group and will play the third-place team from Group A, I or J on July 1 in Seattle.
  • Egypt finished second in the group and will play Australia on July 3 in Arlington.
  • Iran finished in third place and is currently ranked sixth among the third-place teams.
  • New Zealand cannot advance to the knockout stage.

GROUP H SCENARIOS

  • Spain won the group and will play the Group J runner-up on July 2 in Los Angeles.
  • Cape Verde finished second in the group and will play Argentina on July 3 in Miami.
  • Uruguay cannot advance to the round of 16.
  • Saudi Arabia cannot advance to the knockout phase.

GROUP I SCENARIOS

  • France won the group and will play Sweden on June 30 in East Rutherford.
  • Norway finished second in the group and will play Ivory Coast on June 30 in Arlington.
  • Senegal finished in third place and secured a spot as a third-place team.
  • Iraq cannot advance to the knockout phase.

GROUP J SCENARIOS

  • Argentina won the group and will face Cape Verde on July 3 in Miami.
  • Austria will advance with a win or a draw; In the event of a tie, the runner-up will be decided by tiebreaker.
  • Algeria will advance with a win or a draw; In the event of a tie, the runner-up will be decided by tiebreaker.
  • Jordan cannot advance to the knockout phase.
Lionel Messi from Argentina.

Lionel Messi from Argentina.

GROUP K SCENARIOS

  • Colombia has advanced.
  • Colombia will win the group with a win or a draw.
  • Portugal will advance with a win or a draw, and will win the group with a win.
  • Uzbekistan can advance with a victory, but it is not guaranteed.

GROUP L SCENARIOS

  • England will advance with a win or a draw.
  • England will win the group with a victory AND a draw/loss for Ghana.
  • Ghana will advance with a win or a draw.
  • Ghana will win the group with a victory AND a draw/loss for England.
  • Panama cannot advance to the knockout phase.

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