Just over a year ago, Premier League clubs spent in overdrive, using the January 2023 transfer window (and, crucially, the respite after the winter World Cup in Qatar) to rack up record fees, as more than £800 million was spent. spent.
Chelsea's acquisitions of midfielder Enzo Fernandez (£106.8m) and striker Mykhailo Mudryk (£62m, rising to £89m) were the headline deals, as they spent around £300m on their own, but almost every club got involved: Arsenal (£55m), Liverpool (£35m), Newcastle United (£40m) and Aston Villa (£25m) sensed an opportunity and took it, while Southampton (£55m) and relegation-threatened Leeds United (£35m) also splashed out cash to resolve their problems. vain hope for improvement (which didn't work for either of us).
12 months passed and the situation couldn't be more different. Premier League clubs have so far spent around £50m, with Tottenham's £20m transfer for Genoa defender Radu Dragușin accounting for around half that figure, and 11 of 20 clubs have received no income. . So why has the market been so dry?
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The clubs fear the FFP and the PSR
FFP (financial fair play) has long been an issue for clubs, forcing those involved in UEFA competitions to spend a little more wisely than perhaps they would like. Now the Premier League has a new control body: PSR (profit and sustainability rules). This dictates that clubs must not lose more than £105m over the course of a three-year period. It is not a new initiative, but with the huge losses suffered during the COVID-19 period, the rules were temporarily relaxed, so it somewhat took a backseat.
However, we are now past that period and the first two clubs have been accused of infringements: Everton (twice, including a 10-point deduction) and Nottingham Forest. The other 18 Premier League teams no doubt decided to check and re-check their financial reports upon seeing that news, and if they were toying with the idea of one more signing, perhaps they decided to err on the side of caution. After all, a point deduction can be absolutely devastating.
So, with clubs tightening financial strings, the usual level of cash is not flowing through the sport. The knock-on effect of this, whether in England's lower leagues or across Europe, is that clubs are not making big moves. In fact, COVID-19 affected clubs outside the Premier League even more, to the point where they actually need Premier League cash to make any transfers.
The hunter is now the hunted.
Not only are Premier League clubs barely spending on arrivals, but some are even avoiding interest in their own players.
An example of this dynamic is Newcastle United, the world's richest club owned by Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, who despite a growing injury crisis and Sandro Tonali's 10-month ban from playing, do not appear to have the flexibility to achieve any goal. incoming players (not even Kalvin Phillips on loan) and are struggling to retain midfielder Bruno Guimarães and full-back Kieran Trippier.
It is a very different scenario to two years ago, when they spent just under £100m on five players. And that's an indicator of how different things are right now: clubs on the continent are sensing an opportunity to storm the Premier League, not the other way around.
The Saudi project has failed
Perhaps all of these problems would have been alleviated if the Saudi Pro League (SPL) had continued its aggressive recruitment campaign, which would have provided the pockets of European clubs with more money to spend. But to date, Saudi Arabia's most notable acquisition this month has been Marseille left-back Renan Lodi, who cost Al Hilal a fairly reasonable £20m to sign.
SPL clubs have not revived their £150m chase for Liverpool striker Mohamed Salah, nor have they set their sights on another of the game's superstars in Kevin De Bruyne, nor have they done much at all. In fact, they've been more concerned with keeping some of last summer's high-profile acquisitions.
England midfielder Jordan Henderson's extremely public U-turn was completed when he signed for Ajax from Al Ettifaq last week, with Al Nassr defender Aymeric Laporte going on record saying many players were “dissatisfied” with working conditions and unfulfilled promises, while the Ball of 2022 d'Or winner Karim Benzema's fragile relationship with Al Ittihad has led him to train individually and ask for a loan this month.
These were important signings for the Saudi Arabian league last summer, but the PR landscape has changed now. Perhaps events like this have made moving to Saudi Arabia more difficult for players this winter, or perhaps Saudi Pro League director of football Michael Emenalo is simply biding his time. Whatever the case, the lack of moves to the SPL has greatly reduced the amount of January transfer activity we have seen so far.
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Loans dominate
At the very least, the January transfer window has still served one of its classic purposes: giving beleaguered players a chance to reset. The transfer window leading up to a European Championship and a Copa América often generates these types of moves, and 2024 has delivered to a certain extent.
Jadon Sancho (Borussia Dortmund) and Donny van de Beek (Eintracht Frankfurt) have escaped the torment of Manchester United, while Phillips (West Ham) of Manchester City, Fabio Carvalho (Hull City) of Liverpool, Eric Dier (Bayern Munich) of Tottenham and Ian Maatsen from Chelsea (Dortmund) are finally going to play football.
Tottenham's loan of Timo Werner from RB Leipzig was interesting as the German striker looks to reignite his career, and the likes of Emil Forsberg (New York Red Bulls) and Ivan Perisic (Hajduk Split) have ended legendary careers at the highest level . But while it's comforting to see, none of this will really make the transfer flow; So far it's been low-cost stuff, loans and free transfers that don't really move the needle.
The only really interesting permanent deals to date have been Tottenham's signing of Dragușin, Brighton's capture of Boca Juniors left-back Valentín Barco for £8m, and the transfer of the club's USMNT goalkeeper, Zak Steffen, to Colorado Rapids. Even the moves of some of the world's biggest young talents – Manchester City's £12.5m signing of 18-year-old winger Claudio Echeverri from River Plate and Paris Saint-Germain's €20m deal for midfielder Gabriel Moscardo from Corinthians) have seen each other immediately. borrowed again.
Time will tell if the final week of the January window heats up, and the best hope for that is for a major Premier League team to panic and make a move on deadline day. But it's probably safe to say there won't be a record-breaking late transfer this time around.
