In the first three games of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final, the Florida Panthers built a 3-0 lead, dominating most aspects of the game against the Edmonton Oilers.
Games 4 and 5 were a completely different story, as the Oilers responded with two straight wins, with four points in each game for superstar Connor McDavid.
Will the Cats close it out in Game 6? Or will the series continue until Game 7? Our experts are here to break down all the big questions ahead of Friday's game (8 p.m. Eastern, ABC/ESPN+).
What changed for the Panthers in Games 4 and 5?
Ryan S. Clark, NHL reporter: Just a general lack of consistency. For most of the first three games, the Panthers were a metronome. They were a threat to score in every period. Even when their defensive structure had its challenges, they received consistent assistance from Sergei Bobrovsky in a way that made up for those mistakes.
What is happening now appears to be a systemic breakdown in a variety of areas. Game five reinforced that belief. The Panthers limited the Oilers to just 23 shots, 10 scoring opportunities, and 3 high-danger scoring opportunities. Those metrics are solid, but the Panthers allowed four goals, not counting an empty-net goal late. Once again, this is a lack of coherence or at least a disconnection.
Victoria Matiash, NHL analyst: Aside from the “McDavid factor,” and Bobrovsky looking more beatable than essentially all postseason, winning 11 penalties in two games hasn't helped. Not only because three of them led to Oilers power play goals, but also because, by design, it's harder to score on your own when a player is down, unless you're against the Oilers: Mattias Janmark did it in Game 4 and Connor Brown scored one in Game 5.
We can add this last one to the list of reasons why we're even discussing a Game 6 in Edmonton. If Brown hadn't opened with those short five minutes, I'm not sure the Panthers wouldn't already be planning the parade.
Arda Öcal, NHL presenter: Bobrovsky becomes human and McDavid becomes superhuman. More human than human, even. For Bob, that's nine goals allowed in the last two games, with save percentages of .688 and .826, respectively. Bob needs to transform himself back into the best version of Playoff Bob, like he had been (especially against McDavid) earlier in this series.
Kristen Shilton, NHL reporter: Florida's special teams went from impenetrable to vulnerable in an instant. The Panthers had allowed just two power-play goals in their previous 16 outings entering Game 4, where Florida allowed three man-advantage goals and two shorthanded goals.
Those are exhausting totals in hotly contested times like these, and they simply gave more momentum to the suddenly surging Oilers. Yes, McDavid is from another world and Bobrovsky showed that he can be normal too. But Florida's collective downfall was losing those battles they had been winning handily throughout the postseason.
Greg Wyshynski, NHL reporter: These are all symptoms of the main problem: the Cup was in the building twice. The Panthers have sworn up and down that it didn't matter, but Carter Verhaeghe let the mask slip before Game 5: “It's a little different with the Cup in the building.”
Paul Maurice put it, as Paul Maurice does, as if the ultimate goal suddenly went from after the game to being in front of him. Now your friends and family are in a building in Edmonton, waiting to see the Cup. And they're all at Sunrise, plus all your fans, waiting to see the Cup. Florida's starts in Games 4 and 5 are absolutely the byproduct of that strain. The Panthers are much better when expectations are not placed on them and they hit from below. That could be the case in Game 6.
Connor McDavid will score ____ points in Game 6.
Clark: Three points; One goal, two assists.
Matias: Two. A goal of his own and a powerful assist in Leon Draisaitl's first in a long time (May 29).
Ocal: Three points in total.
Shilton: Four points again; One goal, three assists.
Wyshynski: A goal and two assists to move two points behind Wayne Gretzky's all-time record for points in a single postseason.
If the Panthers win Game 6, who wins Conn Smythe?
Clark: It's hard to ignore Connor McDavid for reasons that have everything and nothing to do with McDavid. One of the considerations that Conn Smythe voters will likely take into account when it comes to any Panthers player is his consistency throughout the series. After the third game, it seemed that Bobrovsky and Aleksander Barkov were the two favorites or among the three favorites.
Since then, Bobrovsky has had trouble stopping shots, while Barkov went from scoring four points and being on the ice with no goals against during the first three games to going without a goal while on the ice with four goals against (2 power play goals, 1 shorthanded and 1 5-on-5) in the last two games. By comparison, McDavid has scored eight points in the last two games and has embodied how the Oilers went from struggling to find a grip to having a firmer grip heading into Game 6.
Matias: McDavid could conclude Game 6 down five while losing to the Panthers 7-0 and still getting away with it. Hey, this is coming from someone who has been criticizing Barkov for the award until recently.
Heading into Game 6, this generation's Wayne Gretzky/Mario Lemieux have 20 more points than the most productive Panther (Matthew Tkachuk). We will be referring to this performance for years and years.
Ocal: Connor McDavid, and he's not even close. He is a playoffs prize not a Stanley Cup Final grant. But even if it was, No. 97 broke two records of No. 99 in the last two games. Ignoring one of the greatest individual postseason performances in NHL history would be foolish at this point. It's already McDavid's award.
Shilton: What is Conn Smythe? A most valuable player award for his team in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Are we even discussing Game 6 odds without Connor McDavid? Would Edmonton be in the Cup final if McDavid wasn't having a historically productive postseason?
Sergei Bobrovsky deserves all the praise for what he has given to the Panthers; There's no doubt he's had MVP-worthy playoffs, too. But not even his stellar career is on par with what McDavid has done.
Wyshynski: The guy I said had an undeniable chance to win the Conn Smythe whether or not his team captured the Stanley Cup, and that was before he scored his second straight four-point game.
Unless voters have this unwavering commitment to the idea that a player from the losing team in the Finals can't win a postseason MVP award (a pretty dumb idea, considering it's happened five times before) then McDavid wins the Conn Smythe even if he doesn't lift the Cup. He has led his team deep enough to justify it. He has shattered Gretzky's assist record in a single postseason and is on the verge of becoming the only player besides The Great One in 1987 to participate in more than 50% of his team's goals.
Forget the hockey context: this is one of the most dominant individual efforts in the history of the sport. Of course it's Connor McDavid.
The final score for Game 6 will be ______.
Clark: 4-3, Florida. Generating 26 shots in the final two periods of Game 5, coupled with the fact that they outscored the Oilers 10-4 in the third period, was the most active the Panthers have looked in the last two games. We've talked a lot about how finding any kind of breakthrough could be a sign. Maybe this could be it for the Panthers.
What if it is not? Then we'll wonder if the Oilers are about to pull off the greatest comeback in NHL history, if not the greatest in the history of North American professional sports.
Matiash: 5-3 Panthers. Florida rides the momentum of what it did right in Game 5. I'm happy to be wrong here, though, as I'm salivating at the thought of a Game 7 on Monday.
Öcal: 4-2, Greasers. Bring on game 7!
Shilton: 5-4, Florida. The Panthers won't lose three games in a row. Florida was on Edmonton in the third period of Game 5 (just as the Oilers took it on their opponent in the third frame of Game 3) and will set the tone for how the Panthers begin Game 6. Here's the answer from the Panthers. time.
Wyshynski: 4-3 Florida. As noted above, Game 5 looked a lot like Game 3 in that one team won and the other team lost some confidence in their loss. For about 25 minutes, the Panthers looked like themselves again and Tkachuk looked like the guy we saw in 2023.
His line with Sam Bennett and Evan Rodrigues will lead to multiple goals, Sam Reinhart adds one himself, and the power play ultimately converts. Bobrovsky doesn't turn the ball over and the Panthers hold on in the final minute to win the Stanley Cup for the first time.
