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The United States' chances of riding the magic carpet to a World Cup title are still slim, but the opportunity is much greater than before.
The U.S. men's national team clinched a spot in the round of 32 with its 2-0 victory over Australia on Friday, but there was more reason to celebrate about eight hours later.
After Paraguay defeated Turkey, 1-0, the United States secured first place in Group D: Turkey (zero points) cannot finish ahead of the United States (six), who already beat Paraguay and Australia (each with three) to win the tiebreaker.
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United States players celebrate their first goal, an own goal by Australia's Cameron Burgess, during the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group D match at Seattle Stadium in Seattle, Washington, on June 19, 2026. (Fran Santiago/Getty Images)
That means the United States will play a third-place finisher in the group to begin the knockout phase on July 1 in San Francisco at 8 p.m. EDT.
It remains to be seen who the third-place team will be, as there are 20 different possibilities depending on the rest of the group stage: The United States is scheduled to play the third-place team from Group B, E, F, I or J, and no one from those groups has clinched a spot in the knockout stage yet.
In any case, the United States should be the favorites against whoever they play, if all goes according to plan, unless, of course, France or Argentina fall into their groups.
The Athletic noted, however, that the most likely outcome, at 58%, is Bosnia and Herzegovina, the 64th-ranked FIFA program in the world. Qatar, in 58th place, follows with 18%, and Ecuador, in 28th place, is third with 5%.
Alex Freeman of the United States celebrates with his teammates after scoring his team's second goal during the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group D match between the United States and Australia at Seattle Stadium on June 19, 2026. (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
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With a win there, the United States could once again be favorites as they would face the winner of Match 82. That match is the winner of Group G (New Zealand, Iran, Belgium or Egypt) against another third-place team. Belgium is the highest-ranked team in that group, ranked 10th in the world, while the United States is not far behind, ranked 13th.
Perhaps most importantly, the United States can give an extra week of rest to Christian Pulisic, who missed the Australia game due to a calf injury he suffered in the World Cup opener against Paraguay. With nothing to lose, coach Mauricio Pochettino can, and probably will, limit the play of Pulisic and other stars.
It's still an uphill climb for the Stars and Stripes, but it's no longer the highest peak.
Alex Freeman of the United States heads the ball past Australian goalkeeper Patrick Beach during the World Cup Group D soccer match in Seattle on June 19, 2026. (Maddy Grassy/AP Photo)
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The team has already scored six goals in the group stage, tying its group stage record with one more to go. The USMNT will face Turkey, who needs a win to stay alive, on Thursday in Los Angeles.
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