Only one game on the NBA playoff schedule tonight: Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, game two.
The first game was a fight and the Pacers were in control for most of it. The fast pace, high scoring and, most importantly, bench play favored Indiana. And the controversial ending has to have the Pacers eager to go out and try to win Game 2.
Let's dig into this matchup and find some interesting angles for players and/or teams to exceed expectations tonight.
Tyrese Haliburton over 16.5 points (-115): Haliburton had a poor performance in Game 1, scoring just six points on 2-of-6 shooting from the field with three crucial turnovers in crunch time. Beyond the numbers, however, he was visibly not aggressive, he wasted several shooting opportunities and seemed hesitant. Health is the elephant in the room, with Haliburton dealing with persistent back spasms, but he reportedly stated several times Tuesday his intention to play much better in Game 2. In the first round, Haliburton bounced back from a slow start in scoring (10.5 points per game). through Games 1 and 2) to average 18.8 points per game in Games 3 through 6. I expect Haliburton to show up and put a good number on the board tonight.
TJ McConnell over 10.5 points (-115): While Haliburton needs to bounce back, McConnell just needs to keep doing what he's been doing. In his last two games, he came off the bench and played very well for the Pacers. He dropped 20 points and nine assists in 23 minutes in the closing game against the Bucks, then followed up with 18 points in 22 minutes in Game 1 against the Knicks. McConnell provided energy by leading the second unit that changed the momentum of both games. And he has brought defensive intensity, generating seven steals in those two games and holding Jalen Brunson to just 2-of-9 shooting when he guarded him 1-on-1. McConnell should have a big role again tonight and it seems likely that he will make it through this one. line.
Josh Hart over 12.5 rebounds (-125): Hart had an excellent all-around effort in Game 1, scoring 24 points with 8 assists, 3 rebounds, and a blocked shot. But that is the icing on the cake of his most consistent contribution: breaking the glass. Hart grabbed 13 rebounds in Game 1, the fifth time he has had at least 13 rebounds in seven playoff games. With the official word that center Mitchell Robinson will be out for the foreseeable future, I expect Hart to continue his attack on the glass.
Knicks money line (-175): The Knicks won Game 1 by four points in a game they were losing until a furious late comeback. It was a game with many goals, played at the pace of the Pacers. The Pacers' second unit controlled the action, and against a Knicks team with only a seven-man rotation, it could happen again, which is why I'm not entirely comfortable giving up the 4.5 point spread. That said, I think the Knicks are comfortably the better team and the Pacers don't have an answer for Brunson. The Knicks play at home and have shown a knack for winning close games down the stretch, with Brunson serving as the closer. According to the BPI, the Knicks have a 60.8% chance of winning the game with a projected margin of 3.3 points.
Projections and injury reports
ESPN Analytics Basketball Power Index. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds for ESPN BET
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks
Eastern Semifinals – Game 2
8:00 p.m. Madison Square Garden, New York
Records (against the spread)
Pacers: 47-35 (44-36-2)
Knicks: 50-32 (44-37-1)
Line: Knicks (-4.5) Total: 218.5
Money line: Pacers (+165), Knicks (-195)
BPI projection: Knicks by 3.3, 61% more, 218.0 total points.
Injury report:
Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton, (GTD – Back); Bennedict Mathurin, (OUT – Shoulder)
Knicks: Bojan Bogdanovic, (OUT – Foot); Duane Washington Jr., (OUT – Knee); Julius Randle, (OUT – Shoulder); Mitchell Robinson, (OUT – Ankle)
