Some of the Pac-12's highest-profile expansion targets have rebuffed their interest, as Memphis, Tulane, USF and UTSA all publicly committed to remaining in the American Athletic Conference on Monday.
The schools announced their intentions on social media, solidifying the AAC in the short term and leaving the six-team Pac-12 in flux as it searches for at least two more members to complete its rebuild.
In recent weeks, the Pac-12 has added Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State and San Diego State, with the goal of creating a clear fifth-best football conference. The school is in talks with Gonzaga to add to the basketball league, which sources told ESPN would come with full revenue sharing. ESPN also reports preliminary talks with Saint Mary's for the Pac-12.
But part of the Pac-12's push to become the top football conference outside of the Power 4 leagues has stalled, with Memphis emerging as the linchpin for any potential addition.
The schools issued statements filled with standard jargon about student-athletes and academics, but the reality is that significant financial risk loomed if any of them decided to join the Pac-12. AAC Commissioner Tim Pernetti has aggressively tried to leverage private equity money to help boost cash flow in his league.
The four schools released a joint statement that read, in part: “While we recognize that other conferences have shown interest in our institutions, we firmly believe that it is in our individual and collective best interest to maintain our commitment to each other.”
AAC exit fees emerged as a major factor, with SMU paying $25 million to leave within 27 months. Factoring in lost revenue, it's estimated each school would cost $27.5 million to leave, as the Pac-12 is scheduled to begin play in 2026.
The biggest factor that worked against the Pac-12 in attracting high-profile AAC programs was that it couldn’t guarantee them a set monetary amount. The conference is working with its consulting partner, Navigate, to rebuild the league. Costs and the cost of travel also played a role in the decision-making. Navigate has been at the forefront of outreach calls for the Pac-12, sources said.
While the Pac-12 has offered revenue projections of more than $12 million, there’s no guarantee it will reach that level, considering it doesn’t know who the final members will be. That has prevented the conference from getting a sense from television partners about what a deal would be worth, and that uncertainty presented a risk for AAC schools. Memphis, Tulane and USF each get about $9 million in revenue from the league, all included between media rights, bowl deals and NCAA fees.
While the Pac-12 has been unable to land some of its top targets, the Mountain West has been rushing to solidify its league. ESPN reported that the Mountain West is offering outsized deals to Air Force and UNLV as incentives to stay. The conference is offering its eight members extra money and guaranteeing that they won't back out of their media contract.
ESPN has confirmed that Air Force has pledged its commitment to remain in the Mountain West. This comes in the form of a memorandum of understanding that will allow the league to work toward a television deal and rights awards.
