For teams not playing in their conference championship games, this is the last chance to leave a lasting impression on the College Football Playoff selection committee.
For some contenders, like Ole Miss, their regular-season resume is already complete, and what happens at No. 5 on Tuesday night should be a strong indicator of their final placement on Selection Day. Others, like Miami, rely on hope and help and, most importantly, one more victory. It all started with the Egg Bowl on Friday, a game that not only kept Ole Miss in the playoffs, but also technically in the SEC race.
That's right, this is far from over, so check back after each game to see how the results will affect the playoffs as the day progresses.
Texas 27, Texas A&M 17
Rivalry Week featured its first top-four shakeup when No. 16 Texas beat No. 3 Texas A&M, but it may not be as jarring in the fifth ranking. The Aggies will likely fall to the range of four to six behind Georgia. The Bulldogs have better wins, including a 35-10 beating of…Texas. Georgia also has a better loss (to No. 10 Alabama) and has now clinched a spot in the SEC title game. The question is how far Texas A&M will fall since joining No. 5 Texas Tech, No. 6 Oregon and No. 7 Ole Miss in the one-loss club. The Aggies entered the weekend with a notable lead over Texas Tech in both strength of record (23-56) and strength of schedule (1-10). The committee will likely leave the Aggies just one spot, placing them with Georgia, meaning they would still be in position to earn a first-round bye as the fourth seed. However, there will be strong debate over whether the Aggies, Texas Tech or Oregon, the latter of which has impressed the committee lately by ranking in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency, deserve the higher ranking. The problem for the Aggies is that they would have to finish in the top four as an overall team because they just got eliminated from the SEC title game.
While Texas arguably has the best win in the country, it probably isn't enough to catapult it into the top 10 as a three-loss team. Even with a few upsets over Texas, the Longhorns are unlikely to rise above 12th place.
Indiana 56, Purdue 3
Indiana clinched a spot in the Big Ten championship game with its win against rival Purdue, securing a CFP bid and bolstering its chances of maintaining a first-round bye on Selection Day. The Hoosiers, who have been the committee's No. 2 team in each of the first four rankings, still have a chance to clinch the No. 1 spot in Tuesday's rankings if Ohio State loses to Michigan. If Ohio State loses and Oregon wins, Indiana will face Oregon in the Big Ten title game. If Michigan wins and Oregon loses, the Hoosiers will face Michigan for the conference title.
The question is whether IU can maintain a top-four seed and a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up. If Indiana lost the title game, the committee would consider where its opponent was ranked and how close the game was. The Hoosiers would also be compared to other top teams with just one loss, but playing a ranked opponent in the conference championship game (win or lose) would boost IU's record strength by the committee's metric.
Georgia 16, Georgia Tech 9
Georgia should maintain its spot as the committee's top one-loss team after its win against rival Georgia Tech. Georgia's Oct. 18 win against Ole Miss, along with its win at Tennessee and loss at Texas, impressed the committee. The Bulldogs' consistency on offense and defense has also worked well with the committee. Georgia's first-round bye will only be in doubt if it finishes as SEC runner-up with two losses.
Barring an unusual combination of ACC results, No. 23 Georgia Tech will miss the playoffs at 9-3. The only way the Yellow Jackets can extend their playoff hopes is through the ACC championship game. They entered the weekend with a 1.5% chance of making the game, according to ESPN Analytics.
Ole Miss 38, Mississippi State 19
With its win against rival Mississippi State on Friday, Ole Miss likely clinched a playoff spot and remains in a strong position to host a first-round game at home. If Alabama loses to Auburn on Saturday, Ole Miss will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game. Even if not, the Rebels, with just one loss, should still be a lock for the CFP.
As for the uncertainty still hanging over coach Lane Kiffin, if Ole Miss turns to an interim head coach for the playoffs, the selection committee could consider it. The CFP protocol states that the group will consider “other relevant factors, such as the unavailability of key players and coaches, that may have affected a team's performance during the season or are likely to affect its performance in the postseason.” Ole Miss won't miss the playoffs because Kiffin left for another job, but it could lose a spot or two if the committee believes the team won't be the same without him.
Utah 31, Kansas 21
No. 13 Utah highlighted its resume with a win against 5-7 Kansas, but it's still unlikely to make the playoffs without multiple upsets from the teams above it, especially after being overtaken by No. 12 Miami in the latest CFP rankings. The Utes' best hope of making the CFP remains an at-large team.
Getting that offer is not inconceivable if a combination of teams with two losses above them loses. If Oklahoma, Alabama and Miami lose, it will be difficult for any of them to stay in the top 12 as three-loss teams. Utah would need at least two of them to lose to move into the top 10, which is where it would need to be to be seeded in the field. This year's No. 11 and No. 12 teams will be excluded during the qualifying process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest-ranked conference champions.
