ENGLEWOOD, Colorado — The quarterback question is the bottom line of the Denver Broncos' offseason.
Coach Sean Payton benched Russell Wilson with two games left in the 2023 season. The five-year, $242.6 million contract extension the Broncos agreed to in 2022 is now a major factor in what the Broncos will do, or even will be able to, in the future if Wilson is released (as many in the league expect).
Owner and CEO Greg Penner said just after the season that “the financial part is an important component, in terms of how this will work in the future, but that's not what will drive the decision. The decision will be driven by whatever is in “The best thing is for this soccer team to win games.”
Before the NFL combine, let's look at what the Broncos could do at quarterback:
Keep Russell Wilson
One more year? Releasing Wilson before free agency would bring an $85 million dead money charge to the Broncos' salary cap over the next two seasons.
That would be a move that general manager George Paton called “extreme” just after the season, even though he said the Broncos were “prepared for any scenario” with the salary cap.
During Super Bowl week, Payton said he and Wilson had a “great relationship” and that no decision had been made. But Wilson's Denver home is for sale and multiple sources close to him have said he hopes to be somewhere else.
After Wilson's very public benching and claim that the Broncos threatened to bench him midseason if he didn't adjust his contract, many personnel executives around the league believe the chances of him giving the team a break in their contract are very small. One called it “infinitesimal.”
Feasibility level: Little/no chance.
Trade in the draft
Trading up between the top two or three picks to land one of the best quarterback prospects on the board would require capital, and a lot of it. Last season, the Carolina Panthers sent the Chicago Bears two first-round picks ('23 and '24), two second-round picks ('23 and '25) and wide receiver DJ Moore to move from No. 9 to No. 1.
The Bears have the No. 1 pick this year because of that trade, so to think they would take anything that doesn't rival what they received last April is a pipe dream. They know what it's worth.
The Broncos haven't had a first-round pick since selecting Pat Surtain II in 2021 and have only had three picks in the top 45 in the last four drafts combined.
Denver has the 12th pick, so would need to increase any potential trade offers to move up near the top. Including Surtain or other high-profile players in a trade would also reduce talent on a team that hasn't finished above .500 since 2016. The Broncos have six picks in April's draft and no second-round picks.
Essentially, they would be trying to bring a rookie quarterback prospect to a roster that was split up to get him.
Feasibility level: Sure, it is possible, but the price is very high.
Sign a veteran QB
Beyond a potential $35.4 million cap hit in 2024 if they release Wilson, the Broncos have Jarrett Stidham on the books for $7.3 million against the cap. Overall, they are expected to exceed the cap by $13 million.
Releasing Wilson would also limit which aisle of the free agent quarterback market the Broncos could work in. Paton has said the team didn't expect to be in the “first wave” of free agency this time around.
Baker Mayfield probably worked his way out of the Broncos' post-Wilson budget. Gardner Minshew and Sam Darnold could fit Payton's offense if the price is right, but the question of whether any veteran the Broncos can sign on a limited budget will play better than Wilson's 26 touchdowns in 15 games will follow the team throughout. a season. .
Feasibility level: It remains the most likely, but with limited resources, to do so.
Go with Stidham
Payton put Stidham in the lineup for a “spark” with two games left in the season. The Broncos finished 1-1 as Stidham completed 40 of 66 passes for 496 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.
The Broncos scored 14 and 16 points, respectively, in those games, among their lowest scores of the season.
Financially, the easiest path to absorbing the salary implications of Wilson's release would be if Stidham, who signed a two-year contract before last season, was rewarded for the job. Stidham said at the end of the season that he was “very confident that I can be the right guy for us.”
It could also be a significant indicator that the Broncos have decided to target 2025 to really look for a quarterback solution.
Feasibility level: A likely outcome if free agency doesn't bear fruit.
Write a prospectus and wait and see
The Broncos could simply tough it out at No. 12 in the first round and see how the quarterback frenzy plays out in front of them. If the quarterback you like somehow comes your way, draft him and get him ready to play, when that time comes.
Brock Purdy, the final pick of the 2022 draft, is the current patron saint of mining for draft gold on Day 2 or 3. But he didn't start a game until Week 14 of his rookie year and the 49ers had a mark of 13-4. team around him.
Or having seen the frenzy, the Broncos could trade up, get some much-needed draft capital, grab the best players available when they're on the clock and sign a quarterback they believe has developmental qualities.
That puts Stidham, or another veteran, at the top of the depth chart, at least initially. The wild card is that many league scouts and personnel executives already say they aren't overly excited about the potential 2025 quarterback draft class.
Feasibility level: Even with only six picks, one of them should be a quarterback.
