Whether you feel dizzy or euphoric, or even a bit of both about the first weeks of Trump's second presidency, my advice is to remember Stein's law. Richard Nixon's former chief economic advisor, Herb Stein, declared: “If something cannot continue forever, it will stop.”
I have found that this is a valuable vision, although obvious, for the stock market, depressed adolescents and, in the last additional politicians.
For those who follow such things closely, the rhythm and audacity of Donald Trump's opening gambits have given clichés new life as “drinking a fire sleeve.” The lawyers of lawyers who try to prevent both Elon Musk director and the director of OMB Russell Vaught seem someone who tries to change a tire in a moving car.
It is especially difficult to make demanding judgments about the various efforts in a climate where Trump's most burning fans seem to support everything and Trump's enemies oppose everything. I have a variety of opinions about these flooding efforts. A key distinction is between politics and the process. I would put some things in the cube where I agree with the policy and the process, including its executive order on trans athletes and school sports. Others, I can agree or disagree with politics, but the process seems illegal or unconstitutional. His executive order that revokes the citizenship of birth rights seems obviously unconstitutional. Although I am decidedly ambivalent about the objective.
The effort led by musk to dismantle government agencies from the inside contains all these tensions, and the arguments above all will be developed in court and, finally, Congress.
And that is the keyword: eventually. Because the rhythm and process of the last three weeks is unsustainable. My colleague of the American Enterprise Institute Yuval Levin makes A valuable point: Each new administration, with the remarkable exception of Trump's first presidency when Trump was effectively the dog that caught the car, controls the political agenda from the beginning. As Levin points out, “they have made plans. And you don't know those plans, in general. They do it, and they are launching them at a certain pace and in a certain way. And he feels as if they were in command of the world. “
It's not just that they have plans. The new presidents order loyalty and maximum enthusiasm of their own party and voters. The opposition party is demoralized, licking their wounds and doubting its mission and message. The press coverage also tends to be maximum because reporters seek to cultivate sources in the new administration and that requires broad “rhythm“Coverage.
But eventually, whether you see this period as a glorious honeymoon or a displacement horror show, this chapter ends. External events put the White House in defense. The fall in the stock market on Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico caused the White House to exceed at least a storm withdrawal.
Without a doubt, Trump 2.0's debut is an exaggeratedly steroid repetition of this dynamic, but it is the family dynamic anyway. Soon, Trump will have to get the congress closely controlled by the Republican party to approve a budget, increase the debt roof and work on its legislative agenda. That will require Republicans to behave less as experts and more as legislators. And the hostility that Trump is gaining of the Democrats will make the bipartisan legislation extremely difficult, if not impossible. This drama will also make political attention move along Pennsylvania Avenue in a way that will take Trump out of its comfort zone.
Meanwhile, the courts are already demonstrating the limits of presidential power. The legal system moves slowly, but also moves according to its own imperatives. Many are concerned that Trump refuses to show an appropriate deference to the courts when they inevitably deliver political setbacks. If you refuse to fulfill its entirety or part, or even simply launches rhetorical attacks against the Judiciary, the political dynamics will change. If you exaggerate your hand, members of your coalition could break with it, panic financial markets and some voters will surely bleach. It is unlikely to attract new followers in the process.
Trump obviously sees the presidency as a cuasi monarchist “,PersonalistInstitution with radical powers. He is committed to trying that theory. But he is also more interested in the appearance of such authority than in reality. That is a control in its action range too. If overweight makes it seem weak, might prefer to do less and continue to look strong for your fans.
Anyway, the appearance window without control and in command of the agenda will close sooner rather than later.
@Jonahdispch
