That escalated quickly. We are only in 2026 and events are already unfolding that could significantly reshape the political landscape.
The death of Renee Nicole Good, a 37-year-old mother and U.S. citizen who was shot and killed by an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent in Minneapolis on Wednesday, has the potential to shake the political landscape in ways reminiscent of the 2020 killing of George Floyd.
The Trump administration initially claimed that Good “weaponized his vehicle” in an act of “domestic terrorism,” an account that appears to be contradicted by video evidence. Whether the incident turns into a broader political reckoning (or fades from public attention) may determine its lasting effect on the popularity of President Trump and his immigration policies.
Meanwhile, Trump's decision to invade Venezuela and capture then-President Nicolás Maduro remains controversial, even among some of his supporters.
The attack drew immediate criticism from Marjorie Taylor Greene, Tucker Carlson, and Laura Loomer, with Carlson and Loomer going so far as to raise the claim that Maduro's overthrow was actually about imposing gay marriage in Venezuela (this is impressive, because it manages to combine foreign policy, culture war panic, and complete nonsense in one sentence).
But this schism is not limited to former House members, podcast hosts, and conspiracy theorists. Within the administration, the balance of power appears to be tilting from non-interventionists toward hawks, at least for now.
The current beneficiary of this change is Secretary of State Marco Rubio. As recently as last month, JD Vance, who has generally taken an anti-interventionist stance, seemed like Trump's obvious heir. Now, Rubio's stock has risen (if “Lil Marco” falls short, he can always settle for Viceroy of Venezuela).
That doesn't mean Rubio is anywhere close to being Trump's clear successor. Venezuela could disappear from the headlines as quickly as it arrived, buried under the next crisis, scandal or social media outburst. Or it could go astray and dominate headlines for years or decades.
Military adventurism has a strange habit of doing exactly that.
If Venezuela becomes a slow-motion disaster, Democrats will reap the benefits as will the “America First” Republican contingent.
But January hasn't just presented a potential touchstone for Republicans; Democrats have also been hit by their own challenge: the Minnesota fraud scandal, which has already ousted Democratic Gov. Tim Walz from his re-election bid. It's the kind of story that reinforces voters' worst suspicions about their party.
Over the past five years, portions of Minnesota's Somali diaspora have been involved in alleged fraudulent activities, allegedly submitting millions of dollars in claims for social services that were not actually provided.
The details are complicated; the implications are not. Public programs maintain support only when voters believe they are competently administered, and this history suggests otherwise.
The fact that the scandal involves the Somali community makes it even more flammable. Fair or not, it provides ready ammunition for those eager to stoke racial resentment, discredit refugee policies, and turn bureaucratic failure into an indictment of Democrats.
The consequences extend far beyond Minnesota. Kamala Harris has shown interest in another presidential run, and Walz was her vice presidential pick in what was already a truncated and awkward campaign. That decision alone won't ruin a future bid for her, but it certainly doesn't strengthen his already dubious argument that he has exceptional political judgment.
More worrying for Democrats is the fear that Minnesota is the tip of the iceberg. Walz's exodus was sparked by a right-wing YouTuber who began investigating and drawing attention to years-old investigations conducted by the Walz and Biden administrations. Other influencers are already promising similar revelations elsewhere.
Right-wing podcaster Benny Johnson, for example, has announced plans to invade California, declaring it “the fraud capital of the world.” Newsom returned fire with a cruel Trump-style response, demonstrating once again why he became the Democratic front-runner in 2025.
Newsom's Twitter retort aside, it's not unreasonable to think that Democrats' recent momentum could be wasted if it turns out that more such scandals exist and have been ignored, downplayed, or (worse) covered up.
It is risky to describe anything in modern politics as a tipping point, because every week reliably produces something that eclipses the latest outrage. Still, the first days of this new year already seem important. Seeds have been planted. The question is whether they will mature or not.
Fasten your seatbelt. It's only January.
Matt K. Lewis is the author of “Filthy rich politicians” and “Too dumb to fail.”
