As pressure mounts on President Biden to abandon his re-election bid after a surprisingly dismal debate performance, attention will focus more intensely on two Californians: Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Gavin Newsom.
And while California won't matter in the November election (whoever the Democratic nominee is will easily win the state), its huge delegation to the party's national convention in August could play a decisive role in choosing a replacement for Biden.
Harris is believed to top the initial list of potential replacements, closely followed by Newsom.
But Harris, 59, has been less popular than Biden in polls and is seen as a liability to the ticket. One fear among many voters is that if Biden, 81, does not make it to a second term, Harris will replace him as president.
However, the former California attorney general came across very well in a post-debate interview on CNN. And while I'm a longtime critic, watching it gave me the feeling that maybe it wasn't a disaster of a campaign after all.
Harris could actually perform well on the stump. Drop the robotic script and be more spontaneous. She would certainly be a more competitive debater against Republican Donald Trump than the weak Biden.
Harris displayed genuine conviction — a veneer she typically lacks — in presenting Biden’s policies. She tried to put her debate performance on the best side.
“Yes, there was a slow start. That is obvious to everyone,” she stated. “But it was a strong finish.”
Well, it wasn't, but it did get better, after being severely damaged, probably beyond repair.
One obstacle for Harris, however, is that party leaders remember her failure in her 2020 presidential campaign.
Then there's Newsom, 56.
If Newsom ever wants to run for president — and acts as he does — now may be his best chance, assuming Biden can be convinced. There is persistent speculation about his 2028 run, but he is now in the spotlight and there could be a Democratic incumbent seeking reelection in four years.
Newsom is already in full campaign mode. The two-term governor has been promoting himself nationally while attacking red-state policies and playing the role of an enthusiastic Biden surrogate. He has a veteran campaign organization.
Roger Strassburg of Scottsdale, Arizona, wears a cowboy hat as he watches the presidential debate between President Biden and Republican presidential nominee former President Trump at a debate viewing party Thursday in Scottsdale.
(Ross D. Franklin / Associated Press)
But Newsom would have to compete for the nomination against Harris, his longtime ally from San Francisco. And he has said publicly that he would not do that. If he did, he would be considered a pariah in the party, especially among Black women, Newsom has said privately.
I never really thought a California Democrat could be elected president in this era of hardened polarization. Our politics are too leftist for most of America.
Newsom has Hollywood looks and oratorical skills, but his greatest political asset — being governor of California — is also his greatest vulnerability.
One strength that both Harris and Newsom have, however, is that the California delegation will be by far the largest at the Democratic convention. They would presumably back a California candidate.
The 496-member slate will garner the 22% of votes needed to win the nomination, so if Biden drops out of the race, California could play a significant role in choosing his successor.
Who else is a possibility? For starters, two governors from key battleground states: Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer and Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro. There’s also Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
There is no perfect candidate. But Trump is completely imperfect.
Biden loyalists and lethargic detractors alike have argued for months that it is too late to change horses while the presidential race is underway, especially as it nears the final round. Nonsense.
Conventions were invented to fight over nominations. But sadly, smoke-filled rooms got a bad name and the Democratic Party went too far on reforms. And conventions became boring television shows that fewer people watched.
The Republicans had their last battle at the convention in 1976, when they nominated President Ford instead of California native Ronald Reagan. Ford was defeated by Democrat Jimmy Carter. The last good Democratic fight was in 1972, when the California delegation pushed George McGovern for the nomination, but he was defeated by President Nixon, a native Californian.
So battles against conventions sometimes backfire on a party. But this year could be different.
A Democratic fight could spark new interest in the party and awaken the sleepy base that keeps telling pollsters they want a president much younger than the 81-year-old incumbent.
Political leaders have a bad habit of covering their ears when the public says things they don't want to hear.
Voters are not satisfied with either choice. Trump, 78, appears healthier than Biden, at least physically. But Trump is a pathological liar. “The morals of an alley cat,” Biden told him during the debate.
Voter anxiety about Biden’s ability to adequately serve out a second term was rekindled by his halting, hoarse and awkward performance. He appeared to lose his train of thought at least once and struggled to finish sentences.
It was the worst performance in a presidential debate in history.
In 1984, President Reagan lost his first debate to Democrat Walter Mondale, raising concerns about his age at 73. But it wasn't as painful to watch as Biden. Reagan made a full recovery in a second debate.
Even if Biden's decision-making is sound, people perceive him as weak. And that means he would have a hard time leading the country.
If Trump’s election really would endanger democracy, as Biden claims, then the president should step aside to give the party a better chance of defeating the unfit moron. Naturally, he will resist that. But those he trusts should be honest with him and push back.
“You don't turn your back on him [on someone] “After a performance,” Newsom told a television interviewer. “What kind of party does that have?”
A winning party that prioritizes its principles and the nation.
