When you strip away the hype, nonsense and speculation surrounding Thursday's presidential debate, the central narrative is this: Can Joe Biden pull it off?
In other words, can the 81-year-old president, beset by doubts about his stamina and acuity, be convincing and aggressive enough in a way that transforms the campaign narrative?
But I would suggest that may be the wrong question.
There's no way the president, if he doesn't disappear behind the curtain, won't put in a reasonably solid performance after a week of preparation at Camp David. Sure, he might stumble, mix things up, or just look fragile.
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But Biden will surpass the absurdly low bar that Donald Trump, his Republican allies and conservative commentators have set for him. Dazed, confused, senile, he doesn't know where he is, he can't put two sentences together.
That portrayal is so deeply ingrained that Trump's last-minute effort to correct course (suddenly Biden is a “worthy” debater who “destroyed” Paul Ryan in 2012) is a drop in the bucket.
Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump speaks at the annual Lincoln Reagan Dinner hosted by the Minnesota Republican Party on May 17, 2024 in St. Paul, Minnesota. A recent poll shows President Joe Biden leading Trump in the state by two percentage points. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
And if Biden holds his ground, most of the media will declare him the winner and insist that he exceeded expectations.
In my opinion, the broader issue of the CNN debate centers on Donald Trump.
Now there is a concerted effort by the anti-Trump media to drive home the message that the former president is losing control.
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Trump rambles a lot at his rallies. In his opinion, he entertains the crowd with stories that are often semi-funny or even self-deprecating.
But as his critics see it, Trump, 78, is showing his age through digressions and detours of conscience.
Then, in his weekend appearances in Philadelphia, Trump told the story of a boat owner who told him they couldn't switch to electricity because the batteries were so big they sank boats (the conversation may have been real, but the actually it is not).
And then there was his familiar lament about the rains.
Trump talked about how much he likes to lather his beautiful hair because it makes it thicker, and then the water comes out drip, drip, drip. (I bet the showers at Mar-a-Lago, Bedminister, and Trump Tower, at least, provide plenty of pressure.)
Still, Trump knows the difference between clowning for adoring crowds and managing a debate. He will obviously show himself to be strong, since no one questions his energy level.
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But what most people miss here is their level of discipline. Trump is perfectly capable of activating it for as long as necessary.
I speak from personal experience. When I interviewed the former president for an hour at Mar-a-Lago a few weeks ago, he was sharp and substantial.
Knowing full well that my audience is more independent, Trump easily answered questions about abortion, immigration, Israel, accusations, Tik Tok, retaliation, law enforcement and other topics, some of which had just broken out hours before. While he made some comments, especially about the 2020 election, he didn't miss a beat, not even about something he had made in 1985. He acknowledged that he had at times used inflammatory language to fuel the news cycle.
Now I no longer had any illusions that he had become a different candidate. After a couple of days he started throwing hand grenades again. The risk for Trump this week is that he will get upset and hit Biden with below-the-belt punches. But no one thinks he won't be successful.
Here's how I see the situation playing out: Both Biden and Trump are doing pretty solidly. And since the president is the one who has been derided as a doddering old fool, the media, as I said, declares him victorious.
But the biggest surprise in the Atlanta study will be the more disciplined Trump. And he will be helped by the lack of an audience and the muted microphone rule, which will prevent the constant interruptions that marred his first debate in 2020.
Oh, Trump seems pretty serious. You know, this is not the Trump I remember. He seems more presidential. That may be the reaction among Republicans or independents who leaned against Trump but might prefer the more moderate version.
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Of course, debates are unpredictable and I could be wrong. But it is not only Joe Biden who has the ability to present a different personality.
Note: Both presidents will be rusty, since neither has debated in four years. But Trump has an advantage here because he constantly conducts interviews on television, radio and podcasts, allowing him to refine his answers. The incumbent, largely avoiding journalists and being terse with shouted questions, is not used to such a confrontation.
