Armed with a whiteboard and a penchant for grilling corporate executives during congressional hearings, Katie Porter quickly emerged as an apostle for Democrats in Orange County.
But despite spending millions on his campaign and having a national profile, he won re-election in 2022 by only a slim margin. Now, with Porter running for the Senate, two top Democrats, Sen. Dave Min and Joanna Weiss, have emerged to take on former Republican Assemblyman Scott Baugh in 2024.
For Democrats, both in Orange County and nationally, the stakes are high. The 47th Congressional District is among four Orange County-based districts that are expected to be among the most competitive in the country in the 2024 elections as Republicans and Democrats fight for control of the House.
“If Democrats can't hold this seat, they have no hope of winning the House majority, because demographically this is exactly the type of district that is going into the Democratic coalition,” said David Wasserman, a congressional forecaster for the group. non-partisan Cook Political. Report.
In Porter's district, which includes a large swath of the Orange County and Irvine coast, Democrats have a slight advantage in voter registration, but it is close enough to be a prime target for Republicans in 2024.
Orange County's transformation into a more culturally and economically diverse region has turned the place Ronald Reagan once said was where “good Republicans go before they die” into a political battleground.
In 2018, Democrats, including Porter, flipped four congressional districts in what they celebrated as a “blue wave.” Republicans regained two of those seats in 2020. The 2022 midterm elections were deadlocked.
“Neither Dave Min nor Joanna Weiss are the phenomenon of Katie Porter, neither in their personality nor in their ability to raise money. So it's going to take a lot of resources on the national chess board coming from Democrats to make the seat competitive,” said Jon Fleischman, former state GOP executive director and political strategist.
For months, Democrats debated which candidate has the best chance of finishing in the top two in the March primary and beating Baugh in the November election.
Min's supporters cite his appeal among Asian Americans, a striking group of undecided voters, his support of police unions and his legislative record supporting abortion rights, gun control and environmental protection – positions that are hopes they bring Democrats to the polls.
Weiss has built a large base of support from anti-Trump suburban women who argue that she is the strongest candidate on progressive issues like abortion and that she focuses on economic and environmental issues that are critical to Orange County voters. Support from both groups is expected to be key to keeping a Democrat in the seat.
Min maintains that the majority of female voters over 30 who rank abortion as a priority issue are already aligned with Democrats, noting that “that's not a swing vote at this point.”
Both candidates have spent time – and money – appealing to Democrats by promoting their progressive agendas. Min has raised about $1.2 million this cycle, while Weiss has $1.2 million, including $225,000 he lent to his campaign. The candidates have approximately $825,000 and $832,000 in cash on hand, respectively, according to campaign finance disclosure reports filed in September.
Min, who has won the endorsement of the California Democratic Party and Porter, this month sent a mailer to voters, including independents, citing his record of protecting abortion rights, pushing for stricter gun laws and legislation that has written in an effort to end offshore drilling.
“Those who know CA-47 best… have overwhelmingly supported Dave Min because of his record of winning difficult elections and standing up for Orange County values, including defending reproductive rights, advocating for stricter gun laws and work to end extraterritorial laws. oil drilling and fighting to protect survivors of sexual abuse and domestic violence,” Dan Driscoll, Min’s campaign manager, said in a statement to the Times.
Earlier this month, he launched his first ad in the race, a six-figure video buy that will run on digital and cable platforms titled “United” and with the message that “California Democrats are united behind a candidate: Dave Min.”
Weiss, who founded Women for American Values and Ethics (WAVE), a volunteer and fundraising organization that aims to promote progressive candidates, has earned the endorsement of several California representatives, including Linda Sánchez (D-Whittier ) and Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose). ), a close ally of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco).
Weiss's campaign seized on Min's 2023 DUI arrest as a critical weakness that Baugh could exploit in the general election. Min was arrested last May and charged with misdemeanor driving under the influence after a California Highway Patrol officer saw him run a red light while driving a state car just a few miles from the Capitol.
He apologized and said he accepted “full responsibility” and there was “no excuse” for his actions. Just hours after news of Min's arrest broke, the California Republican Party distributed an email calling him “DUI Dave” and saying that he had “put lives at risk when he made the reckless decision to drive drunk.”
Min's arrest was enough to convince Orange County Supervisor Katrina Foley. Foley, a Democrat, to back Weiss.
“There is no reason to drive drunk. That is a bad decision and it is worrying,” he said. “Republicans are going to use this. “They are going to use it against him and he will not be able to win the overall.”
The fight took a tense turn Thursday, when Weiss's campaign released an ad criticizing Min for allegedly accepting money from special interests and for his DUI. The ad included footage from the police cruiser's dash camera that showed Min swaying as the officer performs a field sobriety test.
“It is important that voters in our community understand their choice in this election. Dave Min cannot be trusted and is a huge liability for Democrats in this race that they must win to flip the House,” said Weiss campaign manager Emma Weinert.
Min responded by commenting on X, formerly Twitter, that “it's very disappointing to see Joanna Weiss run such a negative campaign.”
Min's camp argues that Weiss, a first-time candidate, does not have the name recognition needed to win such a competitive seat.
Questions have also been raised about the source of the money Weiss has used to support his campaign. An article published by the Daily Beast this month suggests that the funds Weiss has invested in the campaign are income earned by her husband Jason Weiss, who specializes in labor and employment law at the firm Sheppard Mullin and has defended the Roman Catholic Diocese of Orange in sexual abuse. demands.
Weiss called the story “a desperate attack.”
“I am the number one fundraiser in the country who is not in office in the 2024 cycle,” she said. “I think the article unfairly attempted to highlight supposed self-funding, but we have had men who completely self-funded their campaigns here in Orange County and no one asked them where their money came from.”
As Min and Weiss face off, Baugh has reached out to undecided voters and amassed a $1.5 million war chest, according to campaign finance disclosures.
For Baugh, the current outlook looks much more favorable for Republicans than in 2022, when he faced Porter, an incumbent who spent millions more than him. For now, Min and Weiss are spending their money fighting each other.
“Whoever comes out of the primary is going to be a little broken, a little bloody,” Baugh said.
