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“No one knows who to talk to,” President Donald Trump said Tuesday at the White House, describing what he described as chaos and opportunity within Iran's leadership. “But we're actually talking to the right people and they really want to get a deal done.”
His comments come as the United States says it is in talks with a “senior” Iranian figure, even as Tehran publicly denies negotiations are taking place.
The question now is not just whether talks are taking place, but whether anyone in Tehran has the authority to carry them out. With attacks on senior Iranian leaders and growing internal fractures, Iran appears to be operating less as a centralized theocracy and more as a war system run by overlapping power centers, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) at its core.
Here's who matters now.
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A State Department Rewards for Justice cartel is offering up to $10 million for information on key leaders linked to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including Mojtaba Khamenei, Ali Asghar Hejazi, Yahya Rahim Safavi, Ali Larijani, Eskandar Momeni and Esmail Khatib. (Department of State / Rewards for Justice)
The IRGC: the real power behind the State
Throughout recent intelligence assessments and reports, one conclusion is consistent: the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has become the dominant force in Iran's political system.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the current moment is accelerating a long-standing trend.
“Without a doubt, both the 12-Day War and the current conflict have reduced the command heights of the political and military leadership of the Islamic Republic,” he said. “But it has also accelerated the inherent trends in Iranian politics, which is the dominance of the security forces and the rise of the IRGC.”
“Yes, there is more IRGC control over the state than ever before, but the state is weaker than ever and more of a national security state than ever,” he said.
“It should not particularly worry Washington, which offers and does not offer negotiations,” Ben Taleblu added. “Washington's preeminent concern has to be working to achieve a military victory with a political victory, and that is not achieved by working with the IRGC, but by defeating them on the battlefield and supporting the forces most deployed against them in Iran, which are the Iranian people.”
Military personnel of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) walk along Enghelab (Revolution) Avenue as an Iranian Kheibar surface-to-surface missile is presented during the Ela Beit Al-Moghaddas (Al-Aqsa Mosque) military demonstration in Tehran, Iran, on November 24, 2023. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is presenting two new missiles during the demonstration. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
The command room: Supreme National Security Council
If the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is the power in Iran, the Supreme National Security Council appears to be the mechanism through which that power is exercised.
The Supreme National Security Council is Iran's main forum for coordinating military and foreign policy, bringing together senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and government officials under the authority of the supreme leader. It was established after the 1979 revolution and has played a central role in managing major crises, from nuclear negotiations to wartime operations.
Iran appointed Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as secretary of the council, reinforcing his central role in Military and political coordination. decisions, Reuters reported on Tuesday.
An official Middle Eastern source with knowledge of the system described the structure:
“Right now, power is in the hands of the IRGC,” the source said. “The Supreme National Security Council makes the decisions, of course, with the support of the majority of IRGC commanders.”
A mourner holds a sign depicting Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, right, the successor of his late father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, left, as supreme leader, during the funeral procession for senior Iranian military officers and civilians killed during the campaign in Tehran, Iran, on March 11, 2026. (Vahid Salemi/AP Photo)
Mojtabā Khamenei: the supreme leader by name
Formally, the Iranian system focuses on Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. But his actual grip on power remains uncertain.
Khamenei inherited the position broad authority after his father's death, but “lacks the automatic authority that his father enjoys,” the Middle East official said.
Additionally, he has not appeared publicly since taking power and has only issued written statements, raising questions about both his health and his ability to govern, after he was reportedly wounded in the initial US-Israel strikes on February 28 that killed his father and other senior Iranian leaders.
Brig. General (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, director of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, suggested that its role may currently be limited: “For the moment, since Mojtaba was injuredIt seems like it is a hologram and has no power. However, if Mojtaba recovers, he will participate in the government of Iran. It is not just a decorative figure. But anyway, for the moment, control of Iran is in the hands of the revolutionary guard.”
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Ghalibaf: the man at the center of Trump's claim
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf speaks during a public event in Iran in 2024. (Hossein Beris / Middle East Images / Middle East Images via AFP)
Trump's statement that he is speaking to an “important person” has focused attention on one name in particular: Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
The White House is quietly exploring Ghalibaf as a possible interlocutor and even a possible future leader, Axios reported.
Ghalibaf, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and current speaker of parliament, represents a hybrid figure within the system, combining military credentials and political authority.
He was one of the key security figures involved in the suppression of student protests in July 1999 and has run for president four times since 2005.
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Ghalibaf is expected to meet with US special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in the capital of pakistan as soon as the end of this week.
Ben Taleblu said: “Those who see the ascendancy of someone like Ghalibaf, who is an IRGC veteran, with power extended outside of his traditional civilian government, have missed the decades in which personality, not profession, has been the driving force, has been a driving force in Iranian politics over the last few decades. I would also say that those who worry about the background of the IRGC's Supreme National Security Council being all that in Iran today, may have overlooked the fact that the last secretaries of the Supreme National Security Council, Shamkhani, Larijani, Ahmadian, all also had a background in the IRGC.”
At the same time, Ghalibaf has publicly denied engaging in talks with the United States, and neither side has provided any direct confirmation of the negotiations.
Araqchi: The diplomat carrying messages
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi attends a joint press conference with Russia's Foreign Minister following their talks in Moscow on April 18, 2025. (Getty Images)
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi remains one of the most visible figures internationally.
If talks were to take placeAraqchi would likely be part of the Iranian delegation along with Ghalibaf, Reuters reported.
But analysts warn that its role is limited. It can act as a communication channel, but does not independently establish policies.
Strategic decisions, particularly regarding war and negotiations, are still determined by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the broader security establishment.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, head of the judiciary, and Alireza Arafi, vice president of the Assembly of Experts, attend the meeting of Iran's interim leadership council at an undisclosed location, amid the US-Israel conflict with Iran, in Iran, March 1, 2026. (IRIB/WANA (West Asian News Agency)/Handout via Reuters)
The Widest Circle of Power: Generals, Clerics, and Executors
Beyond the headline numbers, a broader group of officials can be identified who continue to shape Iran's direction.
They include the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Ahmad Vahidi, the commander of the Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, the naval commander Alireza Tangsiri, the head of the judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, President Masoud Pezeshkian and high-ranking political and clerical figures such as Saeed Jalili and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi.
Each represents a different pillar of the system: military power, regional power operations, control of strategic waterways, internal repression and religious legitimacy.
Together, they form what analysts describe as a fragmented but resilient government network.
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A poster depicting Iran's supreme leaders since 1979: (left to right) Ayatollahs Ruhollah Khomeini (until 1989), Ali Khamenei (until 2026) and Mojtaba Khamenei (incumbent) is displayed on a road in Tehran on March 10, 2026. Iran marked the appointment of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei to replace his father as its supreme leader on the 9th of March. 2026. (AFP/Via Getty Images)
Despite internal divisions, Iran's leadership remains united on one central goal: regime survival.
Kuperwasser described the division: “There are the more pragmatic elites, like Araghchi, Rouhani and Zarif. There are also the hardliners who have usually had the upper hand… But they are united on one issue: that the regime must survive and remain in power.”
The Iranian mission to the UN did not respond to a request for comment in time for publication.
