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While we are still digesting how a random 20-year-old, armed with a high-powered rifle, could get within 150 meters of a presidential campaign rally, climb onto a roof, in full view of Secret Service snipers, prepare the weapon and fire multiple shots, nearly killing a former president of the United States. And although the shooter apparently acted completely alone, no one among the dozens of security and law enforcement agents intercepted him.
Do you know who else has been closely following this near-catastrophic event, as well as everything else that is happening in our country? China and Russia, who view the United States as their main adversary that must be defeated, if not on the battlefield, then at least from within.
Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and their respective spy agencies have been assessing recent developments in the United States: the Trump-Biden debate, the NATO summit in Washington and President Biden's suitability for another term.
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Vladimir Putin, President Biden and Xi Jinping (Getty Images | Reuters)
They have concluded that, despite the rhetoric and bluster coming out of Washington, America's security is in jeopardy. It would be surprising if the two dictators refrained from exploiting this situation. Here's why.
First, between now and January 20, the United States will continue to be led by a president who is increasingly perceived as unable to fully carry out his duties as commander in chief — a critical vulnerability, especially in times of crisis or even war. The Trump-Biden presidential debate and “Big Boy” press conference, during which Biden called Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy “President Putin” and Kamala Harris “Vice President Trump,” confirmed what Putin and Xi already knew: Biden has severe disabilities, cognitive and physical.
While many Americans may not be aware of this fact, given the concerted efforts of Biden’s advisers and some in the media to conceal it, it came as no surprise to the Russians and Chinese, whose intelligence services routinely profile all American presidents. The new conclusion for Putin and Xi is that, bombarded with calls for Biden to drop out of the race, his administration is now fighting for its survival and is clearly not focused on American security. It won’t take much to further unbalance an already distracted American president and his team.
Second, by becoming more deeply involved in Ukraine’s security, the United States is becoming even more involved in a likely war with Russia, which would be catastrophic. The Pentagon has no viable military strategy to win such a war (nor does it have one to this day in Ukraine). Such a war would likely cross the nuclear threshold, according to U.S. intelligence estimates.
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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks with President Biden during a NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, July 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin, File)
During the Washington summit, the 32-member NATO alliance formally declared that Ukraine, which has been part of Russia's strategic security perimeter since the 9th century, is on an “irreversible” path to membership. Russia and the United States have formally declared each other to be major threats to each other's security.
Putin, who has for years claimed that Ukraine's NATO membership is a “red line,” is likely to risk going to war with the United States over that, as multiple war games conducted by the U.S. intelligence community reveal. On his orders, a war strategy was drawn up that includes nuclear weapons, space weapons and cyber warfare. The Kremlin believes that this strategy can achieve victory on Russia's terms.
Third, neither the United States nor NATO has the industrial capacity to wage war with Russia, let alone a war on two fronts simultaneously with Russia and China.
Putin has prepared for a protracted war in Ukraine lasting years, having put the Russian military and economy on a war footing seven years before the invasion. Putin has also protected the Russian economy from sanctions, which – contrary to Washington’s forecasts – has been growing, driven by the arms manufacturing sector. With a comfortable financial cushion of $580 billion in foreign currency and gold reserves, Russia has increased its defence budget by 70% in 2010. 2024 compared to 2023.
In one year, Russia's weapons production capacity increased sevenfold for tanks, sixfold for ammunition, fourfold for armoured platforms and twofold for artillery and missile systems. In 2023, drone production will increase by 80%.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks to the media upon his arrival for a NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, July 12, 2023. (AP Photo/Mindaugas Kulbis)
In contrast, America's European allies, which are not officially at war, lack the production capacity and contracts to match Putin's war machine. Last week, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg admitted at an event at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce that Western production capacity has been insufficient and that Ukraine's demands for military hardware to continue the fight against Russia have not been fully met.
Unlike Russia, where Putin can personally order factories to switch from civilian to military production, defense industries in the United States and Europe are subject to bureaucratic requirements, such as funding approval and contracting capacity. These companies cannot begin manufacturing weapons until a contract is negotiated, approved and funded.
Moreover, much of America’s high-tech weaponry has proven ineffective on the battlefield in Ukraine. The Russians, who have studied the use of American technology in military operations over the past two decades, have been developing countermeasures for what the Pentagon calls “network-centric warfare.” Russia’s superior electronic warfare capabilities have disrupted or degraded many American combat systems that rely on GPS.
According to the Wall Street Journal, citing Ukrainian commanders, some American munitions are no longer used on the battlefield. For example, the M982 Excalibur, developed by RTX and BAE Systems, and the ground-launched small-diameter bomb, manufactured by Boeing and Sweden's Saab.
President Biden and former President Trump debate at CNN Studios in Atlanta on June 27, 2024. (Kyle Mazza/Anadolu via Getty Images)
In April, a senior leader in the U.S. Space Force, a new branch of the service created by President Trump, pointed to the “unprecedented level of electronic warfare” used by Russia to jam U.S. GPS, which the U.S. military relies on for basic functions such as precision targeting and command and control. Col. Nicole Petrucci, commander of the USSF’s combat-ready forces as head of Space Delta 3, during an AFA Warfighters in Action event, expressed concern that U.S. forces would struggle to operate in such an environment. She noted the need for “adequate simulators” and “good enough” instructors who understand the “high-end threat environment” to train U.S. military personnel to fight wars with America’s primary opponents, such as Russia and China.
Other U.S. officials have acknowledged that the high level of electronic warfare in Ukraine could dwarf what the United States might face in a conflict with China, which plans to cripple U.S. satellites in wartime, including kinetically.
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At his press conference, Biden claimed that “NATO is stronger than ever.” He reminded us that the US obligation under Article 5 – which commits the US to defend any NATO member if attacked – is “sacred.” He added that he “will not walk away from Ukraine,” which has not yet become a NATO member.
What Putin and Xi have concluded, however, is that despite the billions of dollars spent annually on intelligence, high-tech weaponry and wars abroad, Washington has failed to close some glaring gaps in U.S. security. The world’s most brutal dictators are delighted to know that a former and possibly future U.S. president is still alive only because of an act of God, and not because he is well protected.
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