A group of prominent economists this week published a letter warning voters that former President Trump would be a disaster for the economy if he wins the election, but many of them made the same warnings in 2016.
Of the 16 Nobel Prize-winning economists who signed Tuesday's letter, at least nine issued similar warnings about the economic danger of electing Trump in 2016. Their letter in this election cycle highlights their fears about inflation.
“Many Americans are concerned about inflation, which has declined remarkably rapidly. There is, rightly, concern that Donald Trump will reignite this inflation, with his fiscally irresponsible budgets,” the economists wrote, according to Axios.
The group is led by Joseph Stiglitz, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2001. Other co-signatories include George Akerlof (2001), Sir Angus Deaton (2015), Claudia Goldin (2023), Sir Oliver Hart (2016), Eric Maskin (2007), Daniel McFadden (2000), Paul Milgrom (2020), Roger Myerson (2007), Edmund Phelps (2006), Paul Romer (2018), Alvin Roth (2012), William Sharpe (1990), Robert Shiller (2013) ), Christopher Sims (2011) and Robert Wilson (2020).
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Several of the honorees were among a group of 370 economists who urged voters not to support Trump just days before the 2016 election. Others mocked Trump's economic policies both before and during his term.
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The 2016 letter argued that Trump “promotes magical thinking and conspiracy theories over sober assessments of viable economic policy options.” They also said Trump had “a profound ignorance of the economy and an inability to listen to credible experts.”
“If elected, he represents a unique danger to the functioning of democratic and economic institutions, and to the prosperity of the country. For these reasons, we strongly recommend that you do not vote for Donald Trump,” they wrote.
That letter included signatures from Deaton, Hart, Maskin, Myerson, Phelps, Romer, Roth and Shiller.
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“Academic economists are excluded” from working in the Trump administration “unless they are some kind of extremist,” Shiller said in an interview with the Lindau Nobel Laureates group in 2017.
Siglitz made similar criticisms of Trump before the Davos economic conference in 2016.
“Unfortunately for [Republicans]”I think he's going to fail,” Siglitz said of Trump. “What he is doing is trying to create a protectionist wall, not managing the economy better.”
Hart also went into more detail about his doubts about Trump in a 2016 interview with CNBC.
“I am very concerned about the possibility of a Trump presidency,” he said days before the election. “I think it would be disastrous for the economy and for other things and I felt compelled to speak out.”
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Despite his predictions, the U.S. economy prospered under Trump before the coronavirus pandemic: The poverty rate hit a record low in 2019, wages rose steadily, and the unemployment rate was low.