The first test of the 2024 presidential election will come on Jan. 15, when Iowa Republicans gather in high school gyms, community buildings and churches.
The caucuses, the first event on the party’s primary calendar in the last half century, will provide an opening moment of truth for former President Donald Trump’s comeback bid and could help Trump-weary Republicans decide which of their rivals support.
What is a caucus? Caucuses are not primaries. Primary elections are conducted like other American elections: at polling stations and by secret ballot, held throughout the day and normally also with absentee and early voting.
The caucuses are something else. They are essentially meetings run by political parties, called at a specific time: 7 pm CT in Iowa. Since this is not a traditional election, a candidate’s performance in Iowa is often considered a test of the organizational strength of their party. Campaign.
How are votes cast in a caucus? For Republicans, candidate surrogates give final presentations after the caucuses begin and then paper ballots are distributed to caucus attendees. They are counted on site and the results are shared with the party.
Does the winner in Iowa usually win the White House? In an open year, when there is no incumbent running for a party’s nomination, Iowa has a spotty record in electing the president, particularly for Republicans.
Only one Republican, George W. Bush, in 2000, won a disputed Iowa showdown and went on to win the White House.
On the Democratic side, Barack Obama won the Iowa caucuses in 2008 and went on to win the White House. Jimmy Carter was the leading Democrat in 1976, but he came in second behind a list of “uncommitted” delegates. Still, the momentum propelled him to the party nomination and, eventually, the White House.
Some notable losses include when the Republican Ronald Reagan came second in 1980 to George HW Bush, who eventually became his running mate. Interestingly, Reagan had won the Iowa caucuses in 1976, although then-President Gerald Ford won the Republican Party. nomination and later lost the White House.
The old Bush, despite winning the caucuses in 1980, lost them in 1988 to then-Senator. Bob Dole even though Bush was running as acting vice president. Bush won the Republican Party nomination.
And Trump, although the favorite in polls leading up to this year’s caucuses, lost the 2016 Iowa caucuses to Cruz.
Read more about the Iowa caucuses here.
